The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that looking ahead to the second quarter, domestic and foreign market demand is expected to increase sequentially, production and operating rates in the photovoltaic industry are expected to improve, and profitability in glass, film, silver paste, etc. will remain stable; profit inflection points in silicon materials, silicon wafers, cells, components, thermal fields, quartz sand, and crucibles are still to be seen. Inverter companies are expected to usher in an improvement in shipment volume against the backdrop of European inventory removal nearing its end.
The main views of Guoxin Securities are as follows:
Grid investment continues to be booming
Driven by strong domestic and external demand and strong overseas demand, power equipment companies performed well in the first quarter of this year. The increase in the export portion of the revenue structure led to an increase in gross margin. Looking forward to the gradual release of domestic power grid investment in the future. At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Guiding Opinions on the High-Quality Development of Distribution Grids under the New Situation”. Demand for distribution grid equipment is expected to be released one after another. The focus of power grid investment is expected to lean towards distribution grids at the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and demand for power grid equipment is expected to continue to improve month-on-month over the next few quarters. On the overseas side, overseas new energy development is driving demand for power grid transformation and upgrading. It is expected that the overseas market and production capacity layout of export-oriented enterprises will continue to be implemented, which is expected to drive order delivery to maintain a high boom.
The wind power start-up side is expected to usher in concentrated emissions
The first quarter was the traditional low season for wind power. Sales prices of mainframes continued to fall, and the general performance of wind power companies was under pressure. However, since entering April, domestic ocean wind tenders have clearly begun. At the same time, the country launched the “Thousand Villages Wind Management Campaign” to promote decentralized wind power development in rural areas, which not only promotes domestic wind power development, but also combines green and low carbon with rural revitalization. Looking ahead to the second quarter, we expect wind power hoisting demand to gradually heat up. The performance of the submarine cable and pipe pile sector is expected to improve month-on-month, and the profitability of the main engine and parts sector will gradually bottom out of the bottom of the valuation range.
With the implementation of the trade-in policy, demand in the lithium battery industry chain is expected to improve
Affected by the off-season demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage, shipments of leading battery companies fell 10% to 30% month-on-month in the first quarter of this year. The decline in operating rates caused the net profit of most battery companies to drop by more than 0.01 yuan/Wh month-on-month. At the same time, shipments of materials such as cathodes, anodes, and diaphragms remained basically flat in the first quarter, and stocks were actively prepared for the second quarter. In terms of profitability, diaphragms, electrolytes, etc. were affected by the low operating rate of enterprises and industry competition during the Spring Festival holiday in February, and product profitability declined sequentially in the first quarter. Looking ahead to the second quarter, with the implementation of the trade-in subsidy policy for China's automobile industry, domestic demand for new energy vehicles is expected to be released rapidly, and domestic and foreign energy storage installations are progressing steadily. On the profit side, the profitability of batteries and upstream cathodes, electrolytes, etc. is expected to stabilize, moderate and improve in the second quarter; competitive pressure on anodes, diaphragms, etc. continues to be affected, and profitability may face certain tests.
PV companies' 2024Q1 performance is generally under pressure
Prices of upstream polysilicon materials weakened markedly in late March this year. The latest prices are close to the cash costs of second-tier polysilicon manufacturers; silicon wafer and battery companies were affected by increased competition and insufficient industry demand, and faced operating losses as a whole; profits of integrated component companies were divided, and companies with relatively high domestic sales experienced loss results in the first quarter, and the overall profit of companies with high overseas (especially in the US market) revenue.
In terms of auxiliary materials, profits of silicon wafer auxiliary materials such as heat fields, quartz sand and crucibles were under pressure, and sector performance declined significantly year on year; PV silver paste companies benefited from the continuous introduction of TopCon battery's LECO technology, and overall profits were stable; leading companies in the module sector photovoltaic film and glass had relatively stable prices, and raw materials were reduced, so unit profit improved year on year; in terms of inverters, the shipment volume and overall profit of most inverter companies declined significantly year on year.
Investment advice: Focus on recommending high-quality targets in each sector
Liangxin Co., Ltd. (002706.SZ), Hongfa Co., Ltd. (600885.SH), Dongfang Cable (603606.SH), Jinbei Electric (002533.SZ), Pinggao Electric (600312.SH), Samsung Medical (), Xu Ji Electric (000400.SZ), Sun Moon Co., Ltd. (USD), Sunshine Power (300274.SZ), Guodian Nanrui (Shuang), Sifang Co., Ltd. (Ningbo), Wanma Co., Ltd. (002276.SZ) 601567.SH 603218.SH 600406.SH 601126.SH ), Hewang Electric (603063.SH), Shenghong Co., Ltd. (300693.SZ), Ningde Times (300750.SZ), Kodaly (002850.SZ), etc.
Risk warning: Risk of policy changes; large fluctuations in raw material prices; production and sales of electric vehicles fall short of expectations.