Hot news

• The market's eyes will be on the Federal Reserve this week, and many officials will take turns speaking

This week, many Federal Reserve officials will “go out”, and it is expected that they will still “play tai chi”, as Goulsby, Bowman, and Williams did last Friday: try to avoid the topic of interest rate cuts, and continue to emphasize that inflation is still high, interest rates need to stay high for some time, there is currently no urgency to cut interest rates, etc...

• The 2024 Buffett Shareholders' Meeting came to a successful conclusion

Berkshire Hathaway announced that net profit for the first quarter reached 12.702 billion US dollars, exceeding market expectations. Also, as of March 31, the market value of Apple stock holdings fell from US$174.3 billion to US$135.4 billion. Regarding the reduction of Apple holdings, Buffett said at the shareholders' meeting that Apple will still be our long-term investment. Furthermore, regarding artificial intelligence, Buffett said that artificial intelligence inventions are similar to nuclear weapons; they are all powerful and dangerous forces that are difficult to control once released.

• US eases tax credit restrictions on electric vehicles using Chinese graphite for batteries, Korean media say: it is inseparable from Chinese graphite

A number of South Korean media outlets focused on reporting “good news” about the Korean automobile industry on the 4th. The reason was that the US Treasury said on May 3, local time, that it would release more “flexibility” in the tax credit policy for automobile manufacturers to obtain electric vehicles, which means that Korean electric vehicle manufacturers using Chinese graphite batteries can also receive a tax credit of up to 7,500 US dollars when entering the US market. South Korean media noticed that the reason this news is “good” for South Korea is because South Korean car companies need to rely on graphite from China to produce batteries. In terms of this material, they are still inseparable from China. Yonhap said that graphite is an essential core mineral in batteries, but China currently dominates this material, so it is estimated that it will take several years for South Korea to find an alternative supply chain to China.

• US Treasury Secretary Yellen says fundamentals still point to slowing inflation

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that although the tight housing supply has brought the downward trend of inflation to a standstill, she still believes that the pressure on basic prices is fading. In an interview in Sedona, Arizona on Friday, Yellen said: “In my opinion, the fundamentals are: inflation expectations — which are well controlled, and the labor market — are strong but not a significant source of inflationary pressure.”

• Wells Fargo: Expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates in September are unwavering

Wells Fargo economists said in an April US employment report released today that fell short of expectations, that the Federal Reserve is still likely to start cutting interest rates in September. These data “show that the job market is still tight, but far less hot than it was a year or two ago,” and “this should support a further slowdown in inflation.” Employment data for May will be released before the next interest rate decision, and a large amount of inflation data will also be released before the June 12 meeting. Wells Fargo said that although interest rate cuts in June are unlikely, “our basic expectations for the first rate cut at the September meeting are still unwavering.”

• May Day outbound travel exploded, Chinese tourists spread across 1,035 cities around the world

This May Day holiday, there was a huge explosion of outbound travel. According to platform data, the number of international air ticket reservations departing on May 1, 2024 surpassed 2019, reaching a single-day high on May 1st in previous years; the number of reservations for many visa-free holiday destinations exceeded 30% in 2019. Chinese travelers have booked hotels in 1,035 cities around the world. The concentration of Chinese travelers has led to a recovery in spending around the world. The “Chinese Festival” has once again become the peak season for global travel spending.

Resumption of US stock trading

• The NASDAQ rose about 2%, Apple surged 6% after the results, and Nvidia rose more than 3%

On Friday EST, the three major US stock indices closed up at least 1%, and the NASDAQ rose about 2%; Apple recorded the biggest increase in 17 months; Amgen led the S&P and Dow; the diet drug duo Lilai once fell more than 3%, and Novo Nord Europe stocks once fell more than 5%; the chip stock index closed up more than 2% and still fell throughout the week; Nvidia rose 3.5%, and Qualcomm fell back the next day; the energy sector fell more than 4% in a week; China's general index closed up 1.7%, three times in a row, and NetEase It rose more than 4%, and Xiaopeng and Ideal Auto fell more than 3%.

• Apple rose nearly 6%, and its market value increased by about 160 billion US dollars in a single day

On Friday EST,$Apple (AAPL.US)$Closing up nearly 6%, the company announced the largest $110 billion share repurchase program ever, while increasing dividends by 4% to 25 cents per share. The company said it is studying artificial intelligence and sees it as an important source of opportunity.

• The mid-term trial of Amgen's new weight loss drug received positive data, and the stock price closed up nearly 12%

$Amgen (AMGN.US)$It said the company was very encouraged after completing a mid-term analysis of MariTide's mid-term study. If approved, the drug will compete with Novo Nordisk's Wegovy and Eli Lilly's Zepbound. CEO Robert Bradway said in a conference call with investors: “We are aware of the huge interest people have in obesity. We are confident in MariTide's differentiated image and believe it will address important unmet healthcare needs.”

Top 20 US stock turnover last Friday

Hong Kong Market Outlook

• Chen Maobo: Hong Kong's economy continues to grow and the capital market climate is improving

Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Chan Mao-po said in a blog post on May 5 that in the first quarter of this year, Hong Kong's GDP grew by 2.7% in real terms, for the fifth consecutive quarter. After seasonal adjustments, the quarterly growth rate also accelerated to 2.3%, and the Hong Kong economy maintained its growth momentum. Hong Kong stocks have been rising for nine consecutive trading days. The Hang Seng Index has accumulated a cumulative increase of nearly 14%, with an average daily turnover of over HK$128 billion. The capital market atmosphere has improved. After the removal of the “hot trick” in the Hong Kong property market, transactions became more active, and property prices have stabilized.

• CICC: Under optimistic circumstances, Hong Kong stocks still have room to rise by about 20%

According to the CICC Research Report, the current round of Hong Kong stock market is mainly driven by capital-driven valuations. After a recent rapid rise, it has clearly been overdrawn in the short term. If the risk premium falls back to the level of the middle of last year and the beginning of the year, it will correspond to an increase of about 2% to 7%, respectively. If subsequent policies continue to be effective, profit growth of 10% under optimistic conditions will correspond to an increase of about 20%.

• The total inventory of 50 listed real estate companies continues to decline, and only 4 have confirmed sales targets for 2024

The China Real Estate News reporter counted the inventory situation of 50 listed housing enterprises in 2023. Judging from the statistical results, by the end of 2023, the inventory size of the 50 listed housing enterprises was 7.53 trillion yuan, down 10.88% from the end of 2022, and the total inventory volume continued to decline. Judging from the 2024 sales targets of 50 listed real estate companies according to statistics, with the exception of Yuexiu Real Estate, Midea Real Estate, Binjiang Group, and Greentown China, other listed real estate companies are more cautious about 2024 sales targets, and most judgments will remain at the average level of recent years. Overall, the future real estate market will still present both opportunities and challenges. On the one hand, the industry has great potential for development under the new model of real estate development; on the other hand, there is still a lot of room for improvement in the quantity and quality of urbanization.

Today's attention

Keywords: China's April Caixin Services PMI, Japanese stock market suspension; Palantir, Lucid Group performance

On Monday, in terms of economic data, major data such as China's Caixin Services PMI for April and the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index for May will be revealed.

In terms of the incident, the Japanese stock market will be closed for one day due to Children's Day.

In terms of financial reports,$Palantir (PLTR.US)$,$Lucid Group (LCID.US)$Major US stock companies will announce their results after the market.

Futubull Chen read:

Investments without research, just like playing poker and never watching cards, are bound to fail.

—Peter Lynch

edit/lambor