The market for NanJing GOVA Technology Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:688539) stock was strong after it released a healthy earnings report last week. Despite this, our analysis suggests that there are some factors weakening the foundations of those good profit numbers.
Zooming In On NanJing GOVA Technology's Earnings
Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
Over the twelve months to March 2024, NanJing GOVA Technology recorded an accrual ratio of 0.29. We can therefore deduce that its free cash flow fell well short of covering its statutory profit, suggesting we might want to think twice before putting a lot of weight on the latter. Even though it reported a profit of CN¥100.8m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through CN¥63m in the last year. We also note that NanJing GOVA Technology's free cash flow was actually negative last year as well, so we could understand if shareholders were bothered by its outflow of CN¥63m.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
Our Take On NanJing GOVA Technology's Profit Performance
NanJing GOVA Technology's accrual ratio for the last twelve months signifies cash conversion is less than ideal, which is a negative when it comes to our view of its earnings. Because of this, we think that it may be that NanJing GOVA Technology's statutory profits are better than its underlying earnings power. Nonetheless, it's still worth noting that its earnings per share have grown at 61% over the last three years. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for NanJing GOVA Technology (1 can't be ignored) you should be familiar with.
Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of NanJing GOVA Technology's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.