Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co.,Ltd. Just Reported A Surprise Loss: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co.,Ltd. Just Reported A Surprise Loss: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Investors in Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:000069) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.2% to close at CN¥2.64 following the release of its first-quarter results. Revenues of CN¥8.7b beat estimates by a substantial 51% margin, but unfortunately Shenzhen Overseas Chinese TownLtd fell substantially short of earnings forecasts, reporting a statutory loss of CN¥0.044 per share, where the analysts had previously predicted a profit. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
深圳華僑城股份有限公司的投資者, Ltd.(深圳證券交易所:000069)本週表現良好,在公佈第一季度業績後,其股價上漲了5.2%,收於2.64元人民幣。87億元人民幣的收入比預期高出51%,但不幸的是,深圳華僑城有限公司嚴重低於收益預期,報告法定虧損爲每股0.044元人民幣,分析師此前曾預測盈利。對於投資者來說,這是一個重要時刻,因爲他們可以在報告中追蹤公司的業績,看看專家對明年的預測,看看對該業務的預期是否有任何變化。根據這些結果,我們收集了最新的法定預測,以了解分析師是否改變了盈利模式。
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Shenzhen Overseas Chinese TownLtd's five analysts is for revenues of CN¥66.7b in 2024. This would reflect a decent 16% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Shenzhen Overseas Chinese TownLtd is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of CN¥0.025 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥53.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.22 in 2024. Although revenue sentiment has improved substantially, the analysts have made a pretty serious reduction to per-share earnings estimates, suggesting that the growth is not without cost.
考慮到最新業績,深圳華僑城有限公司的五位分析師目前的共識是,2024年的收入爲667億元人民幣。這將反映其收入在過去12個月中大幅增長了16%。深圳華僑城有限公司也有望實現盈利,每股法定收益爲0.025元人民幣。在本報告發布之前,分析師一直在模擬2024年的收入爲538億元人民幣,每股收益(EPS)爲0.22元人民幣。儘管收入情緒已大幅改善,但分析師已大幅下調了每股收益預期,這表明增長並非沒有成本。
There's been no major changes to the price target of CN¥3.17, suggesting that the impact of higher forecast revenue and lower earnings won't result in a meaningful change to the business' valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Shenzhen Overseas Chinese TownLtd analyst has a price target of CN¥4.80 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥2.10. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
3.17元人民幣的目標股價沒有重大變化,這表明更高的預測收入和較低的收益的影響不會導致企業估值發生有意義的變化。共識目標股價只是個別分析師目標的平均值,因此——可以很方便地看到基礎估計值的範圍有多廣。最樂觀的深圳華僑城有限公司分析師將目標股價定爲每股4.80元人民幣,而最悲觀的分析師則將其估值爲2.10元人民幣。這是相當廣泛的估計,表明分析師正在預測該業務的各種可能結果。
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Shenzhen Overseas Chinese TownLtd's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 22% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 6.1% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.5% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Shenzhen Overseas Chinese TownLtd is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
了解這些預測的更多背景信息的一種方法是研究它們與過去的業績相比如何,以及同一行業中其他公司的表現。從最新估計中可以明顯看出,深圳華僑城有限公司的增長率預計將大幅加快,預計到2024年底的年化收入增長率爲22%,明顯快於過去五年6.1%的歷史增長。相比之下,我們的數據表明,預計類似行業的其他公司(有分析師報道)的收入將以每年3.5%的速度增長。考慮到收入增長的預測,很明顯,深圳華僑城有限公司的增長速度預計將比其行業快得多。
The Bottom Line
底線
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Shenzhen Overseas Chinese TownLtd. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
最大的擔憂是,分析師下調了每股收益預期,這表明深圳華僑城有限公司可能會面臨業務不利因素。令人高興的是,他們還上調了收入預期,他們的預測表明,該業務的增長速度預計將快於整個行業。共識目標股價沒有實際變化,這表明根據最新估計,該業務的內在價值沒有發生任何重大變化。
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Shenzhen Overseas Chinese TownLtd analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
根據這種思路,我們認爲該業務的長期前景比明年的收益重要得多。根據深圳華僑城有限公司的多位分析師的估計,到2026年,你可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Shenzhen Overseas Chinese TownLtd .
另外,你還應該了解我們在深圳華僑城有限公司發現的1個警告標誌。
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