Qingdao Vland Biotech INC. (SHSE:603739) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 26% gain in the last month alone. Unfortunately, despite the strong performance over the last month, the full year gain of 4.6% isn't as attractive.
Following the firm bounce in price, Qingdao Vland Biotech's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 42.4x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in China, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 31x and even P/E's below 19x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.
With earnings growth that's superior to most other companies of late, Qingdao Vland Biotech has been doing relatively well. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings performance will continue. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the market for P/E ratios like Qingdao Vland Biotech's to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 34% gain to the company's bottom line. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year EPS frustratingly shrank by 37% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 14% each year during the coming three years according to the two analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 24% per annum growth forecast for the broader market.
With this information, we find it concerning that Qingdao Vland Biotech is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Key Takeaway
The large bounce in Qingdao Vland Biotech's shares has lifted the company's P/E to a fairly high level. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
We've established that Qingdao Vland Biotech currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 1 warning sign for Qingdao Vland Biotech that you should be aware of.
If you're unsure about the strength of Qingdao Vland Biotech's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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