Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) Just Released Its First-Quarter Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

It's been a good week for Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 6.1% to US$777. Eli Lilly reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$8.8b and statutory earnings per share of US$2.48, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Eli Lilly

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Eli Lilly's 27 analysts is for revenues of US$43.2b in 2024. This reflects a huge 20% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 98% to US$13.52. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$41.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$12.14 in 2024. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about Eli Lilly's future following the latest results, with a decent improvement in the earnings per share forecasts in particular.

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$845, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Eli Lilly analyst has a price target of US$1,023 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$540. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Eli Lilly's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 28% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 9.5% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 9.3% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Eli Lilly is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Eli Lilly's earnings potential next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$845, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Eli Lilly going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Eli Lilly that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.