JOINN LABORATORIES(6127.HK):WAITING LONGER FOR RECOVERY TO MATERIALIZE
JOINN LABORATORIES(6127.HK):WAITING LONGER FOR RECOVERY TO MATERIALIZE
Joinn reported 1Q24 revenue of RMB325mn, down 12.1% YoY, and booked attributable net loss of RMB272mn, a significant downturn from an attributable net profit of RMB188mn in 1Q23. The 1Q24 revenue accounted for 13.4% of our full-year estimate, in line with its historical average. First quarter is typically a low season for Joinn. The revenue decline was due to persistently soft R&D activities in China's pharmaceutical industry, which has led to increased competition and price erosion. The bottom line was further impacted by the RMB284mn fair value losses from biological assets, a non-operational, non- cash charge. The laboratory services, which represent the core business of Joinn, incurred a net loss of RMB210mn.
Joinn公佈的24年第一季度收入爲人民幣3.25億元，同比下降12.1％，賬面應占淨虧損爲人民幣2.72億元，較23年第一季度的1.88億元人民幣的應占淨利潤大幅下降。24年第一季度的收入佔我們全年估計值的13.4％，與歷史平均水平一致。對於Joinn來說，第一季度通常是淡季。收入下降是由於中國製藥行業的研發活動持續疲軟，這導致了競爭加劇和價格侵蝕。利潤受到生物資產2.84億元人民幣公允價值虧損的進一步影響，這是一項非運營的非現金支出。實驗室服務是Joinn的核心業務，淨虧損人民幣2.1億元。
Margin under pressure, while demand showed early signs of stabilization. Gross profit margin in 1Q24 shrank by 18.9ppt YoY and 7.5ppt QoQ to 32.8%, mainly due to price erosion. Considering the uncertainties of the recovery of R&D in the domestic pharmaceutical market and the price erosion of newly signed orders, the mgt. forecasts the 2024E revenue to remain largely flattish, with continued pressure on profitability. Joinn's new orders signed in 1Q24 totaled ~RMB400mn, representing a decline of ~30% YoY. However, mgt. indicated a notable increase in RFPs (request-for-proposals) in the quarter while the number of new project signed grew by ~ 20% YoY. As of 1Q24, the Company's backlog stood at RMB3.38bn, up 2.4% compared with end-2023. Given Joinn has removed projects with low execution certainty from its backlog, the current backlog provides better predictability of future performance, in our view. Notably, the overseas market has exhibited a stronger recovery momentum than the domestic market, with the number of new projects singed in 1Q24 increasing by 30% both YoY and QoQ. Joinn plans to expand its laboratory capacity in the US. The mgt. plans to double the capacity of Biomere, significantly enhancing its service capabilities in US local market.
利潤率承壓，而需求顯示出穩定的早期跡象。24年第一季度的毛利率同比下降18.9個百分點，環比下降7.5個百分點至32.8％，這主要是由於價格下跌。考慮到國內藥品市場研發復甦的不確定性以及新簽訂的訂單的價格下跌，管理部門預測，2024E收入將基本持平，盈利能力持續承壓。Joinn在24年第一季度簽署的新訂單總額約爲4億元人民幣，同比下降約30％。但是，mgt. 表示，本季度RFP（徵求建議書）顯著增加，而新簽署的項目數量同比增長了約20％。截至24年第一季度，該公司的積壓量爲33.8億元人民幣，與2023年底相比增長2.4％。我們認爲，鑑於Joinn已從其待辦事項中刪除了執行確定性較低的項目，因此當前的待辦事項爲未來績效提供了更好的可預測性。值得注意的是，海外市場的復甦勢頭強於國內市場，24年第一季度簽訂的新項目數量同比和環比均增長了30％。Joinn計劃擴大其在美國的實驗室容量。管理局計劃將Biomere的產能增加一倍，顯著增強其在美國本地市場的服務能力。
Invest in an industrial fund to consolidate resources. In Feb 2024, Joinn announced its plan to invest RMB300mn in an industrial investment fund with specialized investment institutes, marking Joinn's first attempt of this kind. Joinn aims to leverage the investment fund to engage with early-stage healthcare startups, which may bring potential orders in the future. Meanwhile, mgt. indicated that such investment will allow Joinn to build a broad network with early-stage companies with keeping risks reasonably controlled.
投資產業基金以整合資源。2024年2月，Joinn宣佈計劃向專業投資機構的產業投資基金投資3億元人民幣，這標誌着Joinn首次進行此類嘗試。Joinn的目標是利用該投資基金與早期醫療保健初創公司合作，這些初創公司將來可能會帶來潛在的訂單。同時，管理局表示，這種投資將使Joinn能夠在合理控制風險的前提下與處於早期階段的公司建立廣泛的網絡。
Maintain BUY. We revised our TP to HK$10.36 from HK$14.41, based on a 10-year DCF valuation with WACC of 12.9% and terminal growth of 2.0%, reflecting the lower earnings projection. We forecast Joinn's revenue to grow -2.0%/ +13.2%/ +18.2% YoY and adjusted net income to grow -28.4%/ +24.3%/ +47.4% YoY in 2024E/ 25E/ 26E, respectively.
維持買入。根據10年期差價合約估值，我們將目標股價從14.41港元上調至10.36港元，WACC爲12.9％，最終增長2.0％，這反映了較低的盈利預期。我們預測，在2024E/ 25E/ 26E，Joinn的收入將分別同比增長-2.0％/+13.2％/+18.2％，調整後的淨收入將分別同比增長-28.4％/+24.3％/+47.4％。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。