The company's 2024Q1 performance declined significantly, while gross margin increased significantly. Maintaining the “Buy” rating, the company published the 2023 Annual Report and the 2024 Quarterly Report, and achieved operating income of 965 million yuan, YoY -16.67% in 2023; realized net profit of 151 million yuan, YoY -64.32%; deducted non-net profit of 77 million yuan, YoY -75.85%; gross profit margin of 46.96%, YoY 7.48pcts in 2023. In addition, 2024Q1 achieved revenue of 99 million yuan, YoY -20.24%, QoQ -51.1%; net profit to mother of 0.05 billion yuan, YoY -94.1%, QoQ -138.04%; net profit of 13 million yuan, YoY +0.72%, QoQ -10.9%; gross margin of 77.27%, YoY+24.72pcts, QoQ+53.16pcts. Considering that the semiconductor industry is recovering weakly, the company's real estate business is also in the final stages. We lowered the company's profit forecast for 2024-2025 and added a profit forecast for 2026. The estimated net profit for 2024/2025/2026 is 2.12/3.03/435 million yuan (previous value was 5.04 billion yuan), the estimated EPS for 2024/2025/2026 is 0.23/0.33/0.47 yuan (previous value was 0.54/0.74 yuan), and the PE corresponding to the current stock price is 57.4/40.1/28.0 times. The company is a scarce ion in China Injection machine manufacturers are expected to fully benefit from the active expansion of production at local fabs and maintain a “buy” rating.
The semiconductor business increased year-on-year, with high R&D investment supporting long-term growth. Looking at the real estate business, real estate business: real estate sales revenue in 2023 was 548 million yuan, -39.03% year over year; gross profit margin was 66.51%, +2.04pcts year over year. Special equipment manufacturing business: 2023 business revenue of 346 million yuan, +67.53% year-on-year, gross profit margin 18.01%, year-on-year -1.73 pcts. The company is in the transition period between old and new kinetic energy in the industry. The real estate sector is in the final stage, and the semiconductor equipment business is in a period of high investment. In 2023, the company spent 163 million yuan on R&D, +50.8% over the same period. The high investment in R&D helped the company extend its autonomous and controllable core equipment matrix, develop a full range of ion implanter products, and continue to lead the industrial application of domestic high-end ion implanters.
There were plenty of orders in hand throughout the year, and the structural recovery of the industry or growth in volume. According to the company's 2023 annual report, since 2023, the company's Casitong and Jiaxin Semiconductor have received a total of about 400 million yuan in semiconductor equipment orders. Among them, Kaishitong shipped a total of 8 ion implanter equipment to multiple repeat order customers in 2024Q1, and added several additional repeat orders in April. As the semiconductor industry usheres in a structural recovery and the accelerated verification of devices for many clients, the company's semiconductor business may usher in volumetric growth.
Risk warning: risk of declining industry demand; risk of falling capital expenditure for fabs; technology research and development falling short of expectations.