Ligao Foods (300973): 1Q24 net interest rate improvement, 24 years focus on growth and fee control efficiency

2023 及1Q24 利润符合市场预期

2023 年收入34.99 亿元，同比+20.22%；归母净利润0.73 亿元，同比-49.21%。1Q24 营业收入9.16 亿元，同比+15.31%；归母净利润0.77 亿元，同比+53.96%。2023 及1Q24 利润符合市场预期。

发展趋势

2023 年冷冻烘焙和奶油实现量价双增，商超和创新渠道为主要增长渠道。

分产品：据公告，2023 年冷冻烘焙/奶油收入分别22.1/6.5 亿元，收入分别同比+24%/+28%，呈现量价双增长，其中冷冻烘焙增量主要由核心商超、餐饮客户的规模增长贡献，奶油增长主要由稀奶油新品和餐饮客户增长带动，其中UHT 奶油新产线投产半年收入超过1.5 亿元。2023 年冷冻烘焙/奶油产品毛利率分别约31%/39%，分别同比-2.1/+3.9ppt，我们认为其中奶油业务毛利率表现较好与公司对原料锁价策略有关。

1Q24 奶油产品增长表现亮眼，流通饼店及新零售渠道增速较快。1）分产品：据公告，冷冻烘焙/烘焙原料收入分别占比61%/39%，同比分别基本持平/+约56%，其中奶油收入实现翻倍增长。2）分渠道：流通饼房/商超/餐饮及新零售收入占比分别约51%/31%/17%，我们预估流通饼房/餐饮及新零售收入同比增长约25%/50%，我们预估商超渠道同比下降高单位数（主要受高线城市春节期间返乡流动和去年较高基数影响）。

1Q24 扣非净利率回到7.8%。1Q24 毛利率32.6%、同比+0.6ppt，我们认为与产能利用率提升、优化采购有关，1Q24 销售/研发费用率分别12.1%/3.6%，分别同比+0.2/-0.1ppt，我们认为符合公司预算控制的目标，1Q24 剔除股份支付费影响的管理费用率同比+0.5ppt。

我们预估2024 年收入增速预计为20%，2024 年重视控费提效、净利率有望回到较好水平。1）流通饼店：我们预估全年收入增长有望超20%，1H24 增量主要由奶油贡献，2H24 冷冻烘焙会有放量。2）商超渠道：我们预估全年收入增速在高单位数，去年商超渠道基数高，今年增长相对乏力。

3）餐饮和新零售：我们预估全年收入增长将超30%。公司将会通过场景设计将冷冻烘焙、奶油和大客户做连接。4）经营效率：据公告，2024 年公司营销费用会有预算总控上限并分解后纳入相关承接部门考核。

盈利预测与估值

我们维持24/25 年净利润3.11/3.77 亿元不变。当前股价对应19.5/16.1 倍24/25 年P/E。维持跑赢行业评级，我们保持目标价46.5 元，对应约25.3/20.9 倍2024/2025 年P/E，较当前股价有约29.8%的上行空间。

风险

新品放量不及预期，渠道市场开拓不及预期，竞争加剧，食品安全风险。

2023 and 1Q24 profit in line with market expectations

Revenue in 2023 was $3.499 billion, +20.22% YoY; net profit to mother was $73 billion, -49.21% YoY. 1Q24 revenue was 916 million yuan, +15.31% YoY; net profit to mother was 77 million yuan, +53.96% YoY. 2023 and 1Q24 profits are in line with market expectations.

Development trends

Frozen baking and cream achieved both volume and price increases in 2023, with supermarkets and innovative channels as the main growth channels.

By product: According to the announcement, the revenue of frozen baking/cream in 2023 was 2.21 billion yuan, with revenue of +24%/+28%, respectively, showing both volume and price increases. Among them, the increase in frozen baking was mainly contributed by the increase in the scale of core supermarkets and catering customers. The increase in cream was mainly driven by the growth of new whipped cream products and catering customers. Among them, the revenue of the new UHT cream production line exceeded 150 million yuan in half a year. In 2023, the gross margin of frozen baking/cream products was about 31%/39%, respectively, compared to -2.1/+3.9ppt, respectively. We believe that the good gross margin performance of the cream business is related to the company's price locking strategy for raw materials.

1Q24 has shown impressive growth in cream products, and distribution stores and new retail channels are growing rapidly. 1) By product: According to the announcement, revenue from frozen baking/baking ingredients accounted for 61%/39% respectively, which was basically flat /+56% year-on-year respectively. Among them, revenue from cream doubled. 2) Channel subchannel: Distribution bakeries/supermarkets/restaurants and new retail revenue account for about 51%/31%/17%, respectively. We estimate that retail revenue from distribution bakeries/restaurants and new retail sales will increase by about 25%/50% year on year. We estimate that supermarket channels will drop a high number of units year over year (mainly affected by high-tier cities returning to their hometowns during the Spring Festival and last year's higher base).

After deducting the non-net interest rate in 1Q24, it returned to 7.8%. The 1Q24 gross profit margin was 32.6%, +0.6ppt year over year. We think it is related to increased capacity utilization and optimized procurement. The 1Q24 sales/R&D expenses ratio was 12.1%/3.6%, respectively, +0.2/-0.1ppt, respectively. We think it is in line with the company's budget control goals. 1Q24 management fee ratio excluding the impact of share payments was +0.5ppt year over year.

We estimate that revenue growth is expected to be 20% in 2024. In 2024, emphasis is placed on fee control and efficiency, and net interest rates are expected to return to a good level. 1) Distribution cake shops: We estimate that the annual revenue growth is expected to exceed 20%. The 1H24 increase is mainly contributed by cream, and 2H24 frozen baking will increase. 2) Supermarket channel: We estimate that the annual revenue growth rate is high in units. Last year, the supermarket channel base was high, and this year's growth was relatively weak.

3) Catering and new retail: We estimate revenue growth of more than 30% for the whole year. The company will connect frozen baking, cream and big customers through scene design. 4) Operational efficiency: According to the announcement, the company's marketing expenses in 2024 will have an upper limit of overall budget control and be broken down and included in the assessment of relevant undertaker departments.

Profit forecasting and valuation

We kept our net profit unchanged at $311/377 million for 24/25. The current share price corresponds to 19.5/16.1 times 24/25 P/E. Maintaining an outperforming industry rating, we maintain our target price of 46.5 yuan, which corresponds to about 25.3/20.9 times the 2024/2025 P/E, and has about 29.8% upward space compared to the current stock price.

risks

New product sales fall short of expectations, channel market development falls short of expectations, competition intensifies, and food safety risks.

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立高食品(300973)：1Q24净利率改善 24年重视增长和控费提效

Ligao Foods (300973): 1Q24 net interest rate improvement, 24 years focus on growth and fee control efficiency

Risk Disclaimer

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