SHANGHAI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT(600009):1Q24 RESULTS IN LINE; WATCH RECOVERY OF DFS BUSINESS
SHANGHAI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT(600009):1Q24 RESULTS IN LINE; WATCH RECOVERY OF DFS BUSINESS
1Q24 results in line with our expectations
24 年第一季度的業績符合我們的預期
Shanghai International Airport announced its 1Q24 results: Revenue rose 41% YoY but fell 3% QoQ to Rmb3.03bn, and attributable net profit was Rmb386mn (vs. -Rmb99mn in 1Q23 and Rmb437mn in 4Q23), largely in line with our expectations.
上海國際機場公佈了其24年第一季度業績：收入同比增長41％，但環比下降3％，至30.3億元人民幣，應占淨利潤爲3.86億元人民幣（23年第一季度爲-9,900萬元人民幣，23年第四季度爲4.37億元人民幣），基本符合我們的預期。
1Q24 business volume growth sound; waiting for recovery of duty- free business. In 1Q24, the firm's two airports reported 32% YoY and 5% QoQ growth in aircraft takeoffs and landings, recovering to 102% of the level in the same period of 2019. In 1Q24, the two airports reported 59% YoY and 12% QoQ growth in their passenger throughput, recovering to 101% of the same period in 2019. Specifically, passenger throughput of domestic routes and international routes recovered to 115% and 75% of the level in the same period of 2019.
24 年第一季度業務量增長良好；等待免稅業務復甦。在24年第一季度，該公司的兩個機場報告飛機起降量同比增長32％，環比增長5％，恢復至2019年同期的102％。在24年第一季度，這兩個機場的旅客吞吐量同比增長了59％，環比增長了12％，恢復到2019年同期的101％。具體而言，國內航線和國際航線的旅客吞吐量恢復到2019年同期水平的115％和75％。
The firm's QoQ revenue growth was slower than the corresponding business volume growth, possibly due to the slow growth of some non- aviation revenue, in our view. The firm recognized duty-free rental income of Rmb347mn in 1Q24 (vs. around Rmb480mn in 4Q23). Based on the average revenue-sharing ratio of 18-36% in the firm's DFS contract, we estimate DFS sales at Rmb1-1.9bn in 1Q24, and we think per-customer transactions may still be lower than the pre-pandemic level.
我們認爲，該公司的季度收入增長低於相應的業務量增長，這可能是由於一些非航空收入的緩慢增長。該公司在24年第一季度確認的免稅租金收入爲人民幣3.47億元（而23年第四季度約爲4.8億元人民幣）。根據該公司DFS合同中18-36％的平均收入分成比率，我們估計DFS在24年第一季度的銷售額爲10億至19億元人民幣，我們認爲每位客戶的交易量可能仍低於疫情前的水平。
Effective cost control. The firm's operating cost rose 7% YoY but fell 6% QoQ in 1Q24, which was stable amid a substantial recovery in business volume and effective expense control. In 1Q24, the firm's investment income rose 2% YoY and fell 55% QoQ to Rmb123mn.
有效的成本控制。該公司的運營成本在24年第一季度同比增長了7％，但環比下降了6％，在業務量大幅回升和有效支出控制的情況下，該指數保持穩定。在24年第一季度，該公司的投資收入同比增長2％，環比下降55％，至人民幣1.23億元。
Trends to watch
值得關注的趨勢
Construction of Phase IV project well underway. According to the Shanghai Planning & Natural Resources Bureau1 and NDRC2, completion of Shanghai Pudong International Airport's Phase IV expansion project is slated for 2027, which will likely start operation in 2028. The project involves a terminal T3, covering an area of about 852,600 sqm, and will provide a guaranteed airport capacity of 130mn passengers after completion.
第四階段項目的建設進展順利。根據上海規劃和自然資源局1和 NDRC2 的數據，上海浦東國際機場的四期擴建項目計劃於 2027 年完工，該項目可能於 2028 年開始運營。該項目涉及一個佔地約852,600平方米的T3航站樓，建成後將保證機場容量爲1.3億人次。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
We maintain our 2024 and 2025 earnings forecasts at Rmb3,306mn and Rmb4,451mn. The stock is trading at 28.3x 2024e and 21.0x 2025e P/E. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating and our TP of Rmb40, implying 30x 2024e P/E, offering 6% upside.
我們將2024年和2025年的收益預測維持在33.06億元人民幣和44.51億元人民幣。該股的市盈率爲2024年的28.3倍和2025年的21.0倍。我們維持跑贏大盤的評級，目標價爲40元人民幣，這意味着2024年的市盈率是30倍，上漲幅度爲6％。
Risks
風險
Disappointing tourist traffic recovery and/or DFS sales; higher-than- expected capex.
遊客流量恢復和/或DFS銷售令人失望；資本支出高於預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。