BYD ELECTRONIC(285.HK):1Q24 RESULTS IN-LINE WITH SOLID OUTLOOK INTACT
BYD ELECTRONIC(285.HK):1Q24 RESULTS IN-LINE WITH SOLID OUTLOOK INTACT
BYD-E reported in-line 1Q24 results with 38% YoY top line and 33% YoY bottom line growth, which include amortisation expenses related to Jabil deal. Management maintains its bullish outlook, particularly on AI server, Jabil operation optimisation, high-end Android and automotive. Company expects quarterly sequential revenue and GPM improvement in 2024. We keep our top line forecasts unchanged but lower net income by 16%/9%/7% to reflect the amortisation expense, which is offset by lower finance cost. Reiterate BUY with a new TP of HK$38.0 from HK$39.8 based on 17x 2024E EPS.
比亞迪-E公佈了24年第一季度業績，收入同比增長38％，利潤同比增長33％，其中包括與捷普交易相關的攤銷費用。管理層保持樂觀的前景，特別是在人工智能服務器、捷普運營優化、高端安卓和汽車方面。公司預計，2024年季度收入和GPM將持續改善。我們將收入預測保持不變，但將淨收入降低了16％/9％/7％，以反映攤銷費用，但這被較低的財務成本所抵消。重申買入，根據2024年每股收益的17倍，新目標價從39.8港元定爲38.0港元。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
1Q24 review: RMB36bn sales (+38% YoY) and RMB0.6bn NI (+33% YoY) was mainly attributed to consolidation of Jabil. NI was only 36% of 1H24 consensus mainly due to the amortisation of RMB4.6bn other intangibles associated with the Jabil deal. Adding back RMB0.2bn amortisation per quarter (5-year straight- line with zero residue), we believe 1Q24 results to be largely in line with consensus. GPM decreased 0.8ppt YoY to 6.9% due to energy storage margin drag. Per mgmt., 1Q24 total assets and total liabilities each decreased RMB10bn QoQ mainly due to loan repayment.
24年第一季度回顧：360億元人民幣（同比增長38％）和6億元人民幣（同比增長33％）主要歸因於捷普的整合。北愛爾蘭僅佔24年上半年共識的36％，這主要是由於攤銷了與捷普爾交易相關的46億元人民幣的其他無形資產。再加上每季度2億元人民幣的攤銷額（5年直線，零剩餘部分），我們認爲24年第一季度的業績基本符合市場共識。由於儲能利潤率的拖累，GPM同比下降0.8個百分點至6.9％。根據管理層的統計，24年第一季度的總資產和總負債環比均減少了100億元人民幣，這主要是由於貸款還款。
2024 outlook: Mgmt. expects a quarterly sequential GPM growth over the rest of 2024 thanks to optimisation of Jabil operation and ramp up of new business to further lift UTR. Mgmt. also guided financial cost to decrease in following quarters upon a fast loan repayment schedule. Per mgmt., BYD-E will refinance or repay all foreign currency loans by end of 1H24 and the remaining would be mostly repaid in 2H24 with BYD-E's own operating cash. We believe this is a realistic target given BYD-E's RMB10bn net operating cash inflow in 2023.
2024年展望：管理總經理預計，在2024年剩餘時間內，每季度GPM將連續增長，這要歸功於捷普運營的優化以及新業務的增加以進一步提振UTR。Mgmt. 還指導在快速還款計劃下，未來幾個季度的財務成本將降低。根據管理層的說法，比亞迪將在24年上半年末爲所有外幣貸款再融資或償還所有外幣貸款，剩餘部分將在24年下半年使用比亞迪自己的運營現金償還。鑑於比亞迪-E在2023年有100億元人民幣的淨運營現金流入，我們認爲這是一個現實的目標。
Assembly & Component: In 1Q24, BYDE recorded a YoY revenue increase in assembling thanks to the ramp up in both US client and high-end Android client. Revenue from component achieved an exponential growth contributing from the acquisition of Jabil with stable GPM.
裝配和組件：在24年第一季度，由於美國客戶和高端Android客戶的增長，比亞迪的裝配收入同比增長。組件收入實現了指數級增長，這要歸因於收購了具有穩定GPM的捷普公司。
AIS: Mgmt. expects new products including ADAS, thermal management and suspension to drive most revenue growth with stable GPM despite EV price war in 2024 as mgmt. believes BYD Group's auto price cut is mainly in low price segment which would not affect BYD-E's new products in the pipeline. We keep AIS revenue forecast unchanged at 37% in 2024E.
AIS：管理層預計，儘管2024年電動汽車價格戰，但包括ADAS、熱管理和懸架在內的新產品仍將以穩定的GPM推動大部分收入增長，因爲管理層認爲比亞迪集團的汽車降價主要集中在低價領域，這不會影響比亞迪即將推出的新產品。我們將AIS的收入預測維持在2024E年的37％不變。
NIP: Sales from residential energy storage further shrank in 1Q24 due to demand slowdown and price war, dragging overall NIP and group margins. We keep our NIP revenue forecasts unchanged but with a slightly lower margin. We believe BYD-E's manufacturing potential has not been fully unleashed yet, and we are positive on the AI server and AMR robotic business with Nvidia from a three-year perspective. We expect AI server could contribute RMB2bn revenues though initial GPM could be lower than corp. average due to small scale.
NIP：由於需求放緩和價格戰，住宅儲能的銷售在24年第一季度進一步萎縮，拖累了NIP和集團的整體利潤率。我們保持NIP收入預測不變，但利潤率略低。我們認爲，比亞迪-E的製造潛力尚未完全釋放，從三年的角度來看，我們對Nvidia的人工智能服務器和AMR機器人業務持樂觀態度。我們預計，人工智能服務器可能貢獻20億元人民幣的收入，儘管由於規模小，初始GPM可能低於公司的平均水平。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
1) Weak macro demand, 2) slow key client NPI design win, 3) BYD's EV growth slowdown and change in sourcing strategy, 4) unsmooth consolidation of Jabil.
1）宏觀需求疲軟，2）關鍵客戶NPI設計進展緩慢，3）比亞迪的電動汽車增長放緩和採購策略的變化，4）捷普的整合不順利。
Valuation
估價
We cut 2024/25/26E EPS by 16%/9%/7% to factor in intangible amortisation expense which is partially offset by lower finance cost upon a new loan repayment schedule. Our new target price of HK$38.0 is based on 17x 2024E EPS (was 15x).
我們將2024/25/26年度每股收益削減了16％/9％/7％，以計入無形資產攤銷支出，但新貸款還款計劃中較低的財務成本部分抵消了這一費用。我們的新目標價爲38.0港元，基於2024年每股收益的17倍（原爲15倍）。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。