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鲍威尔一开口,下行风险就将产生!

As soon as Powell speaks up, downside risks will arise!

Golden10 Data ·  May 1 14:00

A former Federal Reserve economist said Powell would try his best to be as uninteresting as possible.

Claudia Sahm (Claudia Sahm), a former Federal Reserve economist and founder of Sam Consulting, wanted Powell to be bland, because he was usually more spectacular than she expected. Sam said, “Powell will try to be as uninteresting as possible.”

Of course, this is probably a rather pessimistic prediction of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's upcoming press conference. He often shows a more dovish side in front of the camera, causing significant market fluctuations.

Sam said, “Really, as soon as he talks, it brings all the downside risks.”

Of course, investors are anxious to hear what Powell has to say. Powell may be eager to be plain, but even saying nothing would send a signal. Recent US economic data has constructed a new narrative, that is, the US economy is still resilient but is still struggling with inflation. This is bad news for the US Federal Reserve, which is seeking a window to cut interest rates.

Citigroup's Robert Sockin (Robert Sockin) said, “Given these data, it's hard not to lean a little bit hawkish.”

Sam pointed out that the Federal Reserve can still cut interest rates. “We don't need to make a big move. We are now less than a percentage point away from the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.” She pointed to the 2% inflation target set by the Federal Reserve. “We don't have to be too nervous about the economic data for the past three months, but we also need to take these data seriously. If inflation stops there, then it becomes a problem, and the Federal Reserve will adjust its policy direction accordingly.”

Others have a different opinion on this. Dan Greenhaus (Dan Greenhaus) of Solus Alternative Asset Management said that it is clear that many companies are operating quite well at current interest rates.

Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel (Julian Emanuel) went a step further and looked forward to Powell answering a key question: whether interest rate hikes are still being discussed given the strength of economic activity.

Emmanuel said, “In the distorted logic of financial markets, it is entirely possible that the Chairman of the Federal Reserve will lead us along the path of slightly tightening financial conditions. By finally answering this question, we will be able to make room for interest rate cuts in a few months.”

Win Thin (Win Thin) of Brown Brothers Harriman's company questioned whether Powell would do this.

Ting said, “I don't believe he will say the term 'interest rate hike'. At this stage, the word 'interest rate hike' isn't in his vocabulary.” Also, he reminded everyone not to expect to hear another keyword. “I'm pretty sure he'll write this to remind himself: 'Don't mention anything about interest rate cuts. '”

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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