福莱特玻璃(06865.HK)24年一季报点评:业绩超预期 盈利持续修复
福莱特玻璃(06865.HK)24年一季报点评:业绩超预期 盈利持续修复
Flat Glass reported 1Q24 revenue of Rmb5726mn (+6.7% YoY, +1.5% QoQ) and net profit of Rmb760mn (+48.6% YoY, -3.9% QoQ), which is above market expectation. 1Q24 earnings above market expectation. Given that COGS decreased more than solar glass price in 1Q24, overall GPM recorded 21.5%, +3pct YoY, -1.9pct QoQ. NPM recorded 13.3%, +3.8pct YoY, -0.7pct QoQ. Net operating cash flow recorded Rmb601mn (+225% YoY), since new capacity ramped up and began to generate revenue. Total asset reported Rmb43.4bn (+0.94% QoQ). Net asset reported Rmb22.9bn (+2.98% QoQ). Given that ASP of 2.0mm solar glass has increased by 10% in 2Q24 and prices of soda and natural gas slightly declined, we believe the company will continue its earnings recovery.
Flat Glass公佈的24年第一季度收入爲人民幣5.726億元（同比增長6.7％，環比增長1.5％），淨利潤爲人民幣7.6億元（同比增長48.6％，環比下降3.9％），高於市場預期。鑑於COGS在24年第一季度跌幅超過太陽能玻璃價格，整體GPM錄得21.5％，同比增長3個百分點，環比下降1.9個百分點。NPM錄得13.3％，同比增長3.8個百分點，環比下降0.7個百分點。自新產能增加並開始產生收入以來，淨運營現金流錄得6.01億元人民幣（同比增長225％）。報告的總資產爲434億元人民幣（環比增長0.94％）。淨資產報告的淨資產爲229億元人民幣（環比增長2.98％）。鑑於2.0mm太陽能玻璃的ASP在24年第二季度增長了10％，並且蘇打水和天然氣的價格略有下降，我們認爲該公司將繼續盈利復甦。
Steady capacity expansion plan. A new production line with capacity of 1200tons/day of Anhui project started in March and the company currently has capacity of 21800tons/day. The rest three lines of Anhui project will start in May, June and July, respectively. Nantong project will be commissioned from 3Q24. The company will reach capacity of 30200tons/day (+47% YoY) by end of 2024. The company also began to construct its overseas projects in 2024, namely Vietnam project with capacity of 1600tons/day and Indonesia project with capacity of 2*1600tons/day, and the two projects are expected to be commissioned in 2026. Since overseas price of solar glass is Rmb1-2/sqm higher than domestic price and raw material costs are lower, we believe the overseas expansion will strengthen the company's global supply capacity and improve its profitability.
穩定的容量擴張計劃。安徽項目的一條產能爲1200噸/日的新生產線於3月開工，該公司目前的產能爲21800噸/天。安徽項目的其餘三條線路將分別於5月、6月和7月開工。南通項目將從24年第三季度開始投產。到2024年底，該公司的產能將達到每天30200噸（同比增長47％）。該公司還於2024年開始建設其海外項目，即產能爲1600噸/天的越南項目和產能爲2*1600噸/天的印度尼西亞項目，這兩個項目預計將於2026年投產。由於太陽能玻璃的海外價格比國內價格高出人民幣1-2元/平方米，而且原材料成本較低，我們認爲海外擴張將增強公司的全球供應能力並提高其盈利能力。
ASP of solar glass will remain stable in 2024 thanks to a balanced supply-demand environment. By end of 2023, operation capacity of the solar glass industry reached 98530tons/day. By end of this April, capacity of the industry increased to 107110tons/day and there are still some projects planned to start in 2H24. Considering ramping up of new capacity, we believe overall supply of the solar glass industry in 2024 will increase by 20-25%, resulting in a balanced supply-demand environment.
得益於平衡的供需環境，太陽能玻璃的ASP將在2024年保持穩定。到2023年底，太陽能玻璃行業的運營能力達到98530噸/天。到今年4月底，該行業的產能增加到107110噸/天，還有一些項目計劃在24年下半年啓動。考慮到新產能的增加，我們認爲2024年太陽能玻璃行業的總供應量將增加20-25％，從而營造平衡的供需環境。
Maintain Buy rating. We maintain our 24-26 EPS forecasts: Rmb1.71 in 24E (+38.7% YoY), Rmb2.32 in 25E (+35.1% YoY) and Rmb2.32 (+0.1% YoY) in 26E. We maintain our target price of HK$27.8, representing 15x 24E PE. With solid demand and cost reduction, we believe the company will see an improved margin in 2Q24. We therefore maintain our buy rating.
維持買入評級。我們維持24-26年的每股收益預測：24E爲1.71元（同比增長38.7％），25E爲2.32元人民幣（同比增長35.1％），26E爲2.32元人民幣（同比增長0.1％）。我們將目標價維持在27.8港元，相當於24E市盈率的15倍。憑藉穩健的需求和成本的降低，我們相信該公司的利潤率將在24年第二季度有所提高。因此，我們維持買入評級。
Risks: downstream demand below expectation. Capacity expansion below expectation. Industry oversupply above expectation.
風險：下游需求低於預期。產能擴張低於預期。行業供過於求超出預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。