CHINA RESOURCES BUILDING MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY HOLDINGS(01313.HK):1Q24 SALES VOLUME RISES DESPITE HEADWINDS;AGGREGATE BUSINESS GROWS RAPIDLY
CHINA RESOURCES BUILDING MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY HOLDINGS(01313.HK):1Q24 SALES VOLUME RISES DESPITE HEADWINDS;AGGREGATE BUSINESS GROWS RAPIDLY
1Q24 results largely in line with our expectations
24 年第一季度的業績基本符合我們的預期
China Resources Building Materials Technology Holdings announced its 1Q24 results: Revenue fell 5.6% YoY to Rmb4.79bn, and net profit attributable to shareholders was -Rmb28.9mn (vs. -Rmb30mn in 1Q23). The firm's 1Q24 results are largely in line with our expectations.
華潤建材科技控股公佈了其24年第一季度業績：收入同比下降5.6％，至47.9億元人民幣，歸屬於股東的淨利潤爲-2890萬元人民幣（而23年第一季度爲-3000萬元人民幣）。該公司24年第一季度的業績基本符合我們的預期。
Sales volume of cement and clinker increased despite headwinds. In 1Q24, the firm's sales volume of cement and clinker rose 5.2% YoY to about 13.03mnt despite industry-wide demand decline (cement output in central and southern China fell 11.8% YoY). The firm focuses on operation in Guangdong, Guangxi and Fujian, and its cement sales volume in Guangdong and Fujian rose 9.1% and 5.1% YoY while that in Guangxi fell 0.2% YoY in 1Q24.
儘管存在不利因素，但水泥和熟料的銷量仍有所增加。在24年第一季度，儘管全行業需求下降（中國中部和南部的水泥產量同比下降11.8％），但該公司的水泥和熟料銷售量同比增長5.2％，至約1303萬噸。該公司專注於廣東、廣西和福建的業務，其在廣東和福建的水泥銷量在24年第一季度同比增長9.1％和5.1％，而廣西的水泥銷量同比下降0.2％。
Fierce price competition weighed on prices and gross profit per tonne. In 1Q24, the ASP of cement and clinker fell by Rmb79 YoY to about Rmb244. The firm's cost per tonne fell Rmb72 YoY due to cost dilution caused by falling coal prices and rising sales volume, but its gross profit per tonne dropped by Rmb8 YoY to Rmb27 in 1Q24.
激烈的價格競爭打壓了每噸的價格和毛利。在24年第一季度，水泥和熟料的ASP同比下降79元人民幣，至約244元人民幣。由於煤炭價格下跌和銷售量增加導致成本稀釋，該公司的每噸成本同比下降72元人民幣，但其每噸毛利在24年第一季度同比下降8元至27元人民幣。
Production and sales volume of aggregate and concrete grew rapidly; earnings contribution of the businesses increased. The firm's sales volume of concrete and aggregate rose 50.2% and 169.5% YoY in 1Q24. Gross profit per cubic meter of concrete rose by Rmb7.5 YoY to Rmb46.1, and gross profit per tonneof aggregate fell by Rmb3.9 YoY to Rmb13.2 in 1Q24. The firm's blended gross margin rose 1.8ppt YoY to 13.8% in 1Q24 thanks to a higher proportion of aggregate and concrete businesses in earnings.
骨料和混凝土的產量和銷售量迅速增長；業務的收益貢獻增加。該公司的混凝土和骨料銷售量在24年第一季度同比增長了50.2％和169.5％。24年第一季度，每立方米混凝土的毛利同比增長7.5元人民幣，至46.1元人民幣，每噸總毛利同比下降3.9元至13.2元人民幣。該公司的混合毛利率在24年第一季度同比增長1.8個百分點至13.8％，這要歸因於骨料和混凝土業務在收益中所佔比例的增加。
Expense ratio rose; expenses per tonne dropped YoY due to rising sales volume. In 1Q24, the firm's selling, G&A, and financial expense ratios rose 0.2ppt, 0.5ppt, and 0.3ppt YoY despite falling revenue. Due to rising sales volume of cement and clinker, we estimate that the firm's cement and clinker businesses-related expenses per tonne fell by Rmb2 YoY to Rmb52.7. Considering that part of the incremental expenses were generated by the aggregate business, we expect the firm to cut expenses per tonne of clinker more sharply.
支出比率上升；由於銷量增加，每噸支出同比下降。在24年第一季度，儘管收入下降，該公司的銷售、併購和財務費用比率同比增長了0.2個百分點、0.5個百分點和0.3個百分點。由於水泥和熟料銷售量的增加，我們估計該公司的每噸水泥和熟料業務相關支出同比下降2元人民幣，至52.7元人民幣。考慮到部分增量支出是由整體業務產生的，我們預計該公司將更大幅度地削減每噸熟料的開支。
Borrowing ratio increased from the end-2023 level. At end-1Q24, the firm's borrowing ratio rose about 2.4ppt YoY to 39.3%.
借款比率從2023年底的水平上升。在24年第一季度末，該公司的借款比率同比增長約2.4個百分點至39.3％。
Trends to watch
值得關注的趨勢
Strengthening leading position in regional markets; aggregate business to grow rapidly. The firm has proposed a strategy of winning market share, avoiding breaking the bottom line, optimizing product structure, and improving market position. The focus is on cost reduction and core competitiveness improvement along the value chain. We expect the company to cement its leading position in southern China in 2024. The firm's aggregate business has entered a period of rapid growth thanks to capacity expansion and the completion of supporting infrastructure construction, and we expect earnings contribution of the business to increase. We also expect its aggregate ASP and gross profit per tonne to rebound in 2024 as production capacity in Guangdong (which has higher ASP) expands and the structure of its aggregate sales optimizes.
鞏固區域市場的領先地位；聚合業務以快速增長。該公司提出了一項贏得市場份額、避免突破底線、優化產品結構和提高市場地位的戰略。重點是降低成本和提高價值鏈中的核心競爭力。我們預計該公司將在2024年鞏固其在中國南方的領先地位。由於產能擴張和配套基礎設施建設的完成，該公司的總體業務已進入快速增長時期，我們預計該業務的收益貢獻將增加。我們還預計，隨着廣東（ASP較高）產能的擴大和總銷售結構的優化，其總ASP和每噸毛利將在2024年反彈。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
We keep our 2024 and 2025 attributable net profit forecasts at Rmb676mn and Rmb804mn. The stock is trading at 11.4x 2024e and 9.2x 2025e P/E. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating and our TP of HK$1.93, implying 17.7x 2024e and 14.3x 2025e P/E, offering 55.6% upside.
我們將2024年和2025年的應占淨利潤預測維持在6.76億元人民幣和8.04億元人民幣。該股的市盈率爲2024年的11.4倍，2025年市盈率爲9.2倍。我們維持跑贏大盤的評級，目標價爲1.93港元，這意味着2024年市盈率爲17.7倍，2025年市盈率爲14.3倍，上漲幅爲55.6％。
Risks
風險
Demand recovery disappoints; competition intensifies.
需求復甦令人失望；競爭加劇。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。