GUANGZHOU BAIYUN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT(600004):RESULTS IN LINE;OPERATIONS RECOVERING;WATCH PROGRESS OF PHASE III PROJECT
GUANGZHOU BAIYUN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT(600004):RESULTS IN LINE;OPERATIONS RECOVERING;WATCH PROGRESS OF PHASE III PROJECT
Passenger traffic continued to recover in 1Q24; cost control effective. The firm's passenger throughput grew 43% YoY and 16% QoQ in 1Q24, recovering to 108% of the 2019 level. Domestic and international passenger throughput recovered to 121% and 69% of the 2019 levels. The firm's YoY and QoQ revenue growth was weaker than passenger volume growth, possibly due to lower revenue growth of several non-aviation businesses, in our view. The firm's operating costs rose 10% YoY and fell 12% QoQ to Rmb1.24bn in 1Q24.2023 and 1Q24 results largely in line with our expectations Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport announced its 2023 and 1Q24 results: In 2023, revenue rose 62% YoY to Rmb6.43bn, and net profit attributable to shareholders was Rmb442mn (vs. -Rmb1.07bn in 2022). In 1Q24, revenue fell 9% QoQ but rose 22% YoY to Rmb1.66bn, and attributable net profit was Rmb188mn (vs. Rmb168mn in 4Q23 and Rmb45mn in 1Q23). The firm's results were largely in line with our expectations.
2023年和24年第一季度的業績基本符合我們的預期，廣州白雲國際機場公佈了其2023年和24年第一季度的業績：2023年，收入同比增長62％至64.3億元人民幣，歸屬於股東的淨利潤爲4.42億元人民幣（2022年爲-10.7億元人民幣）。在24年第一季度，收入同比下降9％，但同比增長22％，至16.6億元人民幣，應占淨利潤爲人民幣1.88億元（而23年第四季度爲1.68億元人民幣，23年第一季度爲4,500萬元人民幣）。該公司的業績基本符合我們的預期。
Aviation and non-aviation revenue grew 102% and 44% YoY in 2023; cost control effective. Thanks to the substantial recovery in operations, the firm's revenue related to aircraft movement and passenger transiting or transferring rose 61% and 146% YoY in 2023 (vs. 71% and 142% YoY growth in aircraft movement and passenger throughput in 2023).
2023年，航空和非航空收入同比增長102％和44％；成本控制有效。由於運營的大幅復甦，該公司與飛機運輸和旅客過境或轉機相關的收入在2023年同比增長了61％和146％（相比之下，2023年飛機運量和旅客吞吐量同比增長71％和142％）。
In 2023, the firm's revenue from leasing and concession, aviation ground and catering services, and other non-aviation businesses grew 24%, 61%, and 54% YoY, underperforming the YoY growth of aviation business volume. Revenue from the advertising business fell 11%, which we attribute partly to rent reductions for advertising and contract renegotiations. The firm's operating cost rose only 3% YoY in 2023, remaining relatively stable despite notable recovery in business volume, in our view.
2023年，該公司來自租賃和特許經營、航空地面和餐飲服務以及其他非航空業務的收入同比增長24％、61％和54％，低於航空業務量的同比增長。廣告業務收入下降了11％，這在一定程度上歸因於廣告租金的降低和合同重新談判。我們認爲，該公司的運營成本在2023年僅同比增長了3％，儘管業務量顯著回升，但仍保持相對穩定。
Passenger traffic continued to recover in 1Q24; cost control effective. The firm's passenger throughput grew 43% YoY and 16% QoQ in 1Q24, recovering to 108% of the 2019 level. Domestic and international passenger throughput recovered to 121% and 69% of the 2019 levels. The firm's YoY and QoQ revenue growth was weaker than passenger volume growth, possibly due to lower revenue growth of several non-aviation businesses, in our view. The firm's operating costs rose 10% YoY and fell 12% QoQ to Rmb1.24bn in 1Q24.
客運量在24年第一季度繼續恢復；成本控制有效。該公司的客運量在24年第一季度同比增長43％，環比增長16％，恢復至2019年水平的108％。國內和國際旅客吞吐量恢復至2019年水平的121％和69％。我們認爲，該公司的同比和季度收入增長低於客運量的增長，這可能是由於幾家非航空業務的收入增長放緩。該公司的運營成本同比增長了10％，在24年第一季度下降了12％，至12.4億元人民幣。
Trends to watch
值得關注的趨勢
Watch progress of Phase III project. Terminals 1 and 2 of Baiyun Airport are now connected after East 4 and West 4 corridors were put into operation on December 31, 20231. Meanwhile, the firm completed the construction of the main building of Terminal 3 in January 20242. According to the Department of Transport of Guangdong Province, Terminal 3 may be ready for operation in December 2025. Upon its operation, the firm's annual passenger throughput capacity is likely to reach 120mn passengers3.
觀看第三階段項目的進度。20231 年 12 月 31 日東 4 號和西 4 號走廊投入運營後，白雲機場 1 號和 2 號航站樓現已連接。同時，該公司於2024年1月完成了3號航站樓主樓的施工。根據廣東省交通廳的說法，3號航站樓可能在2025年12月投入運營。運營後，該公司的年客運吞吐量可能達到1.2億名乘客3。
The firm announced at its 3Q23 results meeting that the legal person and investor of the Phase III project is its parent company. We suggest watching the impact of the Phase III project on revenue and costs of the listed company.
該公司在23年第三季度業績會議上宣佈，第三階段項目的法人和投資者是其母公司。我們建議觀察第三階段項目對上市公司收入和成本的影響。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
We keep our 2024 and 2025 earnings forecasts unchanged at Rmb1.20bn and Rmb1.24bn. The stock is trading at 20.8x 2024e P/E and 20.1x 2025e P/E. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating and TP of Rmb12.90, implying 25x 2024e P/E with 22% upside.
我們將2024年和2025年的收益預測維持在12.0億元人民幣和12.4億元人民幣不變。該股的市盈率爲2024年的20.8倍，2025年市盈率爲20.1倍。我們維持跑贏大盤的評級，目標價爲12.90元人民幣，這意味着2024年的市盈率是25倍，上漲幅度爲22％。
Risks
風險
Disappointing passenger demand and/or duty-free business development; higher-than-expected incremental cost from Phase III project.
旅客需求和/或免稅業務發展令人失望；第三階段項目的增量成本高於預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。