Incident Overview
The company released its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report.
Revenue recognition accelerated in 23Q4, and the 24Q1 revenue side growth rate gradually slowed. In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 4.446 billion yuan, +51.76% year over year, of which Q4 was 1,823 billion yuan, +122.56% year over year, exceeding market expectations. By industry:
1) Semiconductors: Achieved revenue of 264 million yuan in 2023, -9.48% year-on-year, a slight decline; 2) Consumer electronics: achieved revenue of 4.124 billion yuan in 2023, +68.19% year-on-year, a significant increase. We judge that it was mainly due to orders to accelerate revenue recognition; 3) New energy and others: achieved revenue of 50.54 million yuan in 2023, a significant decrease of -71.86% year-on-year.
2024Q1 achieved revenue of 774 million yuan, or +8.26% over the same period. The growth rate has slowed, which is basically in line with market expectations. We judge that on the one hand, the 2023Q1 revenue base is high, and on the other hand, the 2023Q4 company accelerated revenue recognition, which indirectly affected 2024Q1 revenue side performance. Looking back, on the one hand, as consumer electronics orders gradually enter the peak delivery season, on the other hand, semiconductor measurement equipment is expected to accelerate revenue recognition, and the company's revenue growth for the full year 2024 is expected to accelerate.
Gross margin increased dramatically, and the profit side performance in Q1 was better than market expectations of the company's net profit to mother and net profit of 6.87 million yuan and 668 million yuan respectively in 2023, +123.72% and +132.60% compared with the same period, falling within the upper middle range of the performance forecast.
The net sales interest rate and net profit margin after deducting non-sales in 2023 were 15.59% and 15.03%, respectively, compared with +4.62 and +5.22pct, respectively, and the profit level increased significantly. 1) Mowry end:
The gross sales margin in 2023 was 46.92%, +6.82pct year on year. Among them, the gross margins of semiconductors, consumer electronics and new energy industries were 47.29%, 47.18%, and 28.81%, respectively, +2.43, +6.15, and +8.00pct, respectively. We determined that it was mainly due to product structure optimization. 2) Cost side: The cost rate for the 2023 period was 26.51%, -1.99pct year on year. Among them, sales, management, R&D and financial expenses ratios were +0.12, -0.62, -1.52, and +0.03pct, respectively. The R&D expenses rate declined markedly due to scale effects.
2024Q1's net profit to mother and net profit after deducting net income not to mother were 0.94 million yuan and 89 million yuan, respectively, +30.08% and +70.29% year-on-year, and the profit side exceeded market expectations.
The 2024Q1 net sales margin and net sales margin after deducting non-sales were 13.01% and 11.52%, respectively, compared with +2.65 and +4.20pct, mainly benefiting from the increase in gross margin due to product structure optimization. 2024Q1 gross sales margin and period expense ratio were 45.56% and 29.23%, respectively, +4.59 and -1.17pct year-on-year, respectively. The net income from the change in fair value of 2024Q1 was -13.56 million yuan (2023Q1 was 0), which had a negative impact on the profit side.
The consumer electronics business continues to expand, and semiconductors will become an important growth point 1) Consumer electronics: the company's core business segment, basically covering terminal products such as mobile phones, tablets, headphones, watches, audio, etc., and is not only used in the assembly and inspection process of the entire terminal product, but also extended vertically to front-end module segments and component assembly and testing, and is deeply involved in the development of new customer products and components; 2) Semiconductors: Mergers and acquisitions of Japan's Optima enters the measurement equipment sector, and actively cooperates with the new needs of first-tier international customers to continuously package HBM and other advanced packaging The field has been expanded and improved Poor monitoring of HBM and TSV process processes and successful batch equipment orders are expected to fully benefit from the wave of HBM production expansion.
Investment advice
We expect the 2024-2026 revenue to be $53.53, 64.60, and 7.453 billion yuan, respectively, +20%, +21%, and +15%, the net profit to the mother for 2024-2026 will be 8.84, 10.58, and 1,217 billion yuan, respectively, +29%, +20%, and +15%. EPS for 2024-2026 will be 4.41, 5.28, and 6.07 yuan, respectively. The 2024/4/29 stock price of 71.41 yuan corresponds to 16, 14, and 12 times PE. Based on the company's potential for continued expansion in the consumer electronics and semiconductor fields, it was covered for the first time and given a “gain” rating.
Risk warning
The industry is declining, new business expansion falls short of expectations, etc.