TIGERMED(300347):MEANINGFUL DEMAND RECOVERY IN 1Q24
TIGERMED(300347):MEANINGFUL DEMAND RECOVERY IN 1Q24
Tigermed reported 1Q24 revenue of RMB1,660mn, down 8.0% YoY, and attributable recurring net income of RMB303mn, down 20.5% YoY, which was mainly due to the substantially reduced gains on fair value changes and investment changes (RMB8mn in 1Q24 vs RMB198mn in 1Q23). 1Q24 revenue / attributable recurring net income accounted for 19.8%/ 18.0%, respectively, of our 2024 full-year estimates, which were largely in line with its pre-COVID average level. 1Q24 revenue would be flat compared with 1Q23 if excluding COVID vaccine related revenue. Gross profit margin (GPM) in 1Q24 was 37.8%, significantly improved by 5.0ppt QoQ, driven by ongoing cost management measures as well as the MoM GPM improvements of its lab services. According to mgt., GPM would be 38.5% in 1Q24, flat QoQ, if excluding COVID vaccine related revenue. Mgt. targets to grow the attributable recurring net income by 25-30% QoQ in 2Q24, considering the accelerated revenue conversion from contracts and the cost control measures.
泰格医药公布的24年第一季度收入为人民币16.6亿元，同比下降8.0％，归属经常性净收益为人民币3.03亿元，同比下降20.5％，这主要是由于公允价值变动和投资变动的收益大幅减少（24年第一季度为800万元人民币，而23年第一季度为人民币1.98亿元）。24年第一季度收入/归属经常性净收益分别占我们的19.8％/18.0％ 2024年全年估计，与COVID之前的平均水平基本一致。如果不包括COVID疫苗相关收入，则与23年第一季度相比，24年第一季度的收入将持平。在持续的成本管理措施以及实验室服务的环比GPM改善的推动下，24年第一季度的毛利率（GPM）为37.8％，环比大幅提高了5.0个百分点。据管理层称，如果不包括与COVID疫苗相关的收入，则在24年第一季度的GPM将达到38.5％，环比持平。考虑到合同收入转换的加速和成本控制措施，管理部的目标是在24年第二季度将应占经常性净收入环比增长25-30％。
Demand experiencing meaningful recovery in 1Q24. According to mgt., 1Q24 contract signings rebounded to double-digit growth, with Mar showing an acceleration compared to Jan and Feb. The upward trend has persisted into April. Specifically, orders from MNC and domestic pharma clients contributed to a notably larger proportion in total orders while orders from the U.S. and Australia remain robust. Encouragingly, there are signs of recovery in orders from domestic biotech firms, thanks to the recovery of biotech funding. Tigermed's BD team will continue to focus on exploring opportunities from MNC and domestic pharma clients.
需求在24年第一季度经历了有意义的复苏。据管理层称，24年第一季度的合约签订量反弹至两位数增长，3月份与1月和2月相比有所加速。上升趋势一直持续到4月。具体而言，来自跨国公司和国内制药客户的订单在总订单中所占的比例明显更大，而来自美国和澳大利亚的订单仍然强劲。令人鼓舞的是，由于生物技术资金的恢复，国内生物技术公司的订单有恢复的迹象。Tigermed的BD团队将继续专注于探索跨国公司和国内制药客户的机会。
Strengthening cost control. Tigermed plans to continue its cost control on SG&A expenses and GPM optimization. Mgt. indicated that, with its asset- light business model, Tigermed possesses ample leverage on cost controls, which, for instance, include increasing the utilization of decentralized clinical trial (DCT) platforms (applied in ~20% projects as compared with ~17% by end-2023), establishing integrated teams within specific therapeutic areas, and reallocating personnel across departments as needed.
加强成本控制。Tigermed计划继续对销售和收购费用和GPM优化进行成本控制。Mgt. 表示，凭借其轻资产业务模式，Tigermed在成本控制方面拥有充足的杠杆作用，例如，包括提高分散式临床试验（DCT）平台的利用率（应用于约20％的项目，而到2023年底约为17％），在特定治疗领域内建立综合团队，以及根据需要在各部门之间重新分配人员。
Globalization remaining a high priority. In the global market, Tigermed strategically serves Chinese companies targeting global market, as well as overseas local clients with limited access to international CRO services. The company has recruited a local BD team in the U.S and is currently engaged in multiple projects with U.S. local clients. Tigermed intends to further expand team sizes in the U.S. and India to enhance its global operation.
全球化仍然是高度优先事项。在全球市场上，Tigermed战略性地为瞄准全球市场的中国公司以及获得国际CRO服务的机会有限的海外本地客户提供服务。该公司已在美国招募了一支当地的BD团队，目前正在与美国当地客户合作开展多个项目。Tigermed打算进一步扩大在美国和印度的团队规模，以加强其全球业务。
Maintain BUY. We trim our TP from RMB68.57 to RMB66.82, based on a 10-year DCF model (WACC: 10.95%, terminal growth: 2.0%), to factor in the slower earnings projection and uncertainties in demand recovery pace. We forecast Tigermed's revenue to grow 11.3%/ 16.2%/ 20.6% YoY and attributable recurring net income to grow 11.9%/ 20.8%/ 25.6% YoY in 2024E/ 25E/ 26E, respectively.
维持买入。根据10年期差价合约模型（WACC：10.95％，终端增长：2.0％），我们将目标从68.57元人民币下调至66.82元人民币，以考虑收益预测放缓和需求复苏步伐的不确定性。我们预计泰格医疗的收入将在2024E/25E/26E分别增长11.3％/16.2％/20.6％，应占经常性净收入将分别同比增长11.9％/20.8％/25.6％。
译文内容由第三方软件翻译。