The performance stage was under pressure, and more measures were taken to focus on the core business, and the rating was lowered to “gain weight”
I love that my family publishes reports for the first quarter of 2023 and 2024. In 2023, we achieved revenue and net profit of 120.9 billion yuan and -850 million yuan respectively, +3.6% and -173.9% year-on-year respectively. 2024Q1 achieved revenue and net profit to mother of 27.5 billion yuan and 0.3 billion yuan respectively, -12.6% and -51.0% year-on-year respectively. Affected by sluggish market sales, we lowered the company's profit forecast. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 1.2, 2.1, and 330 million yuan (the original value in 2024 and 2025 was 2.2 billion yuan and 330 million yuan), EPS was 0.05, 0.09, and 0.14 yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to PE valuations of 34.0, 19.2, and 12.4 times, respectively. Since the real estate industry is still in a downward phase, the company's short-term performance may continue to be under pressure, so it was lowered to a “gain” rating. .
The brokerage and Xiangyu business bucked the trend, and revenue from the new housing business declined. In terms of main business, the brokerage business achieved revenue of 4.09 billion yuan in 2023, achieving a gross profit margin of 20.2%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points over the previous year, achieving a GTV of about 222.2 billion yuan, +10.2% year over year. At the same time, the Xiang Yu business (housing asset management business) continued to be the company's performance stabilizer, with revenue of 5.76 billion yuan in 2023, +1.9% year on year. %, up 2.3% year over year. By the end of 2024Q1, the Xiang Yu business achieved general rental orders of 43,000, +1.1% over the same period, with 279,000 units under management, an increase of 80,000 units over the end of 2023 (2.71 million units at the end of 2023, +6.7% year over year); the new housing business achieved revenue of 1.11 billion yuan, -12.6% year over year, gross margin of about 12.6%, up 0.1 percentage point year on year, achieving a GTV of about 45.3 billion yuan, or -6.6% year over year.
Multiple factors affect current profit. Profit after business adjustments are expected to improve the company's loss margin and increase significantly in 2023, mainly due to some non-operating or one-time factors.
These factors affected the company's total profit of about 700 million yuan. At the same time, in order to further optimize the asset structure and resource allocation and revitalize existing assets, the company plans to clear the commercial real estate marketing business and some non-core business assets. On January 31, 2024, it was announced that the ownership price of Kunming New Era Plaza and the parking building will be sold at a price of 44 million yuan, and that 100% of the shares held by Tibet Yunhe Trading Co., Ltd. will be transferred at a price of 124 million yuan. The total transaction price was 168 million yuan. We believe that with business adjustments and brand upgrades, the company's profitability can be expected to improve.
Risk warning: The sales scale of the industry fell short of expectations, and the expansion of Xiang Yu's business fell short of expectations.