China Film's (SHSE:600977) Strong Earnings Are Of Good Quality
China Film's (SHSE:600977) Strong Earnings Are Of Good Quality
China Film Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:600977) robust earnings report didn't manage to move the market for its stock. Our analysis suggests that this might be because shareholders have noticed some concerning underlying factors.
中國電影股份有限公司's(上海證券交易所代碼:600977)強勁的收益報告未能推動其股票的市場走勢。我們的分析表明,這可能是因爲股東已經注意到了一些相關的潛在因素。
Examining Cashflow Against China Film's Earnings
根據中國電影的收益研究現金流
Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
許多投資者尚未聽說過現金流的應計比率,但它實際上是衡量公司在給定時期內自由現金流(FCF)在多大程度上支持利潤的有用指標。爲了獲得應計比率,我們首先從一段時期的利潤中減去FCF,然後將該數字除以該期間的平均運營資產。你可以將現金流的應計比率視爲 “非FCF利潤率”。
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
因此,當公司的應計比率爲負時,這實際上被認爲是一件好事,但如果其應計比率爲正,則是一件壞事。雖然正應計比率表明非現金利潤達到一定水平不是問題,但高應計比率可以說是一件壞事,因爲它表明紙面利潤與現金流不匹配。值得注意的是,有一些學術證據表明,總的來說,高應計率對短期利潤來說是個壞兆頭。
Over the twelve months to December 2023, China Film recorded an accrual ratio of -0.46. That implies it has very good cash conversion, and that its earnings in the last year actually significantly understate its free cash flow. To wit, it produced free cash flow of CN¥1.8b during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of CN¥263.0m. Given that China Film had negative free cash flow in the prior corresponding period, the trailing twelve month resul of CN¥1.8b would seem to be a step in the right direction. However, that's not all there is to consider. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.
在截至2023年12月的十二個月中,中國電影的應計比率爲-0.46。這意味着它的現金轉化率非常好,而且其去年的收益實際上大大低估了其自由現金流。換句話說,它在此期間產生了18億元人民幣的自由現金流,使其報告的2.630億元利潤相形見絀。鑑於中國電影在前一同期的自由現金流爲負,過去十二個月的18億元人民幣的業績似乎是朝着正確方向邁出的一步。但是,這還不是要考慮的全部。應計比率至少部分反映了不尋常項目對法定利潤的影響。
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
這可能會讓你想知道分析師對未來盈利能力的預測。幸運的是,您可以單擊此處查看根據他們的估計描繪未來盈利能力的交互式圖表。
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
不尋常物品對利潤的影響
While the accrual ratio might bode well, we also note that China Film's profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥153m in the last twelve months. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. We can see that China Film's positive unusual items were quite significant relative to its profit in the year to December 2023. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.
儘管應計率可能是個好兆頭,但我們還注意到,在過去的十二個月中,價值1.53億元人民幣的不尋常物品提振了中國電影的利潤。雖然我們希望看到利潤增加,但當不尋常的物品做出重大貢獻時,我們往往會更加謹慎一些。當我們分析全球絕大多數上市公司時,我們發現重大不尋常的事項往往不會重演。這正如你所預料的那樣,因爲這些增強被描述爲 “不尋常”。我們可以看到,截至2023年12月的一年中,中國電影的正面不尋常項目相對於其利潤相當可觀。在其他條件相同的情況下,這可能會使法定利潤成爲衡量潛在盈利能力的不良指導。
Our Take On China Film's Profit Performance
我們對中國電影盈利表現的看法
In conclusion, China Film's accrual ratio suggests its statutory earnings are of good quality, but on the other hand the profits were boosted by unusual items. Given the contrasting considerations, we don't have a strong view as to whether China Film's profits are an apt reflection of its underlying potential for profit. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for China Film you should be aware of.
總之,中影的應計比率表明其法定收益質量良好,但另一方面,利潤是由不尋常的項目提振的。鑑於截然不同的考慮,我們對中影的利潤是否恰當地反映了其潛在的盈利潛力沒有明確的看法。考慮到這一點,除非我們對風險有透徹的了解,否則我們不會考慮投資股票。一個很好的例子:我們發現了你應該注意的中國電影的一個警告信號。
In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, as a guide to a business. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
在這篇文章中,我們研究了許多可能損害利潤數字效用的因素,以此作爲企業的指南。但是,還有很多其他方法可以讓你對公司的看法。有些人認爲高股本回報率是優質業務的好兆頭。因此,你可能希望看到這份免費收藏的擁有高股本回報率的公司,或者這份內部人士正在購買的股票清單。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。