HealthStream, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
HealthStream, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
It's been a good week for HealthStream, Inc. (NASDAQ:HSTM) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 8.0% to US$25.92. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$73m were what the analysts expected, HealthStream surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.17 per share, an impressive 52% above what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
對於HealthStream, Inc.（納斯達克股票代碼：HSTM）的股東來說，這是美好的一週，因爲該公司剛剛發佈了最新的第一季度業績，股價上漲了8.0％，至25.92美元。總體而言，這似乎是一個可信的業績——儘管分析師預期的收入爲7300萬美元，但HealthStream出人意料地實現了每股0.17美元的（法定）利潤，比預期高出52％。根據結果，分析師更新了他們的盈利模式，很高興知道他們是否認爲公司的前景發生了巨大變化，或者業務是否照舊。我們認爲，讀者會發現分析師對明年最新（法定）業績後的預測很有趣。
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from HealthStream's six analysts is for revenues of US$294.0m in 2024. This would reflect a reasonable 3.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to shrink 8.2% to US$0.54 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$293.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.51 in 2024. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.
考慮到最新業績，HealthStream的六位分析師目前的共識是，2024年的收入爲2.94億美元。這將反映其在過去12個月中收入合理增長3.9％。預計同期法定每股收益將下降8.2％，至0.54美元。在本業績發佈之前，分析師一直預測2024年的收入爲2.936億美元，每股收益（EPS）爲0.51美元。從他們新的每股收益估計來看，分析師似乎對該業務更加看好。
The consensus price target rose 5.6% to US$31.67, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values HealthStream at US$36.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$27.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
共識目標股價上漲5.6％，至31.67美元，這表明更高的收益預期也流向了該股的估值。但是，還有另一種思考價格目標的方法，那就是研究分析師提出的價格目標範圍，因爲範圍廣泛的估計可能表明，對業務可能的結果有不同的看法。目前，最看漲的分析師對HealthStream的估值爲每股36.00美元，而最看跌的分析師估值爲27.00美元。由於估值範圍如此狹窄，分析師顯然對他們認爲的業務價值有相似的看法。
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that HealthStream's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 5.3% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 2.8% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, HealthStream is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.
現在從大局來看，我們理解這些預測的方法之一是了解它們與過去的業績和行業增長估計相比如何。從最新估計中可以明顯看出，HealthStream的增長率預計將大幅加速，預計到2024年底的年化收入增長率爲5.3％，明顯快於過去五年中每年2.8％的歷史增長。相比之下，我們的數據表明，預計類似行業的其他公司（有分析師報道）的收入將以每年11％的速度增長。顯而易見，儘管未來的增長前景比最近更加光明，但預計HealthStream的增長將低於整個行業。
The Bottom Line
底線
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around HealthStream's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that HealthStream's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
對我們來說，最大的收穫是共識的每股收益上調，這表明人們對HealthStream明年盈利潛力的看法明顯改善。幸運的是，分析師還重申了他們的收入預期，表明收入符合預期。儘管我們的數據確實表明，預計HealthStream的收入表現將比整個行業差。目標股價也大幅提高，分析師顯然認爲該業務的內在價值正在提高。
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on HealthStream. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for HealthStream going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
考慮到這一點，我們不會很快就HealthStream得出結論。長期盈利能力比明年的利潤重要得多。在Simply Wall St，我們有分析師對2026年之前HealthStream的全方位估計，你可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for HealthStream that we have uncovered.
在你採取下一步行動之前，你應該了解我們發現的 HealthStream 的 1 個警告信號。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論，我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議，也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意，我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之，華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。