CNOOC LTD(883.HK):STRONG BEAT AGAIN IN 1Q24
CNOOC LTD(883.HK):STRONG BEAT AGAIN IN 1Q24
Strong beat again in 1Q24
24 年第一季度再次表現強勁
The net profit of CNOOC Limited surged 24% YoY to RMB39.7bn in 1Q24, 9% above our forecast. The discrepancy mainly came from the lower-than-expected cost, higher-than-expected realized oil price and higher-than-expected output. The company is likely to see even higher earnings in 2Q24 given the recent surge in oil price. Its oil and gas output will beat the high end of its guidance if there is no significant disruption from typhoons. We reiterate our BUY call with target price increased to HK$21.84.
中海油有限公司的淨利潤在24年第一季度同比增長24％，至397億元人民幣，比我們的預測高出9％。差異主要來自成本低於預期、已實現油價高於預期以及產量高於預期。鑑於最近油價的飆升，該公司在24年第二季度的收益可能會更高。如果颱風沒有造成重大幹擾，其石油和天然氣產量將超過其預期的最高水平。我們重申買入看漲期權，目標價上調至21.84港元。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
The company's opex and all-in cost dropped 1% YoY and 2% YoY to US$6.91/BOE and US$27.59/BOE respectively in 1Q24. They are 8% and 9% below our forecasts respectively. While the 5% YoY depreciation of RMB against US$ helped, the lower cost of new projects and improved efficiency at Long Lake oil sand project also contributed to the lower cost.
該公司的運營支出和總成本在24年第一季度分別下降了1％和2％，至英國央行6.91美元和英國央行27.59美元。它們分別比我們的預測低8％和9％。儘管人民幣兌美元同比貶值5％有所幫助，但新項目成本的降低和長湖油砂項目效率的提高也有助於降低成本。
Its realised oil price surged 6% YoY to US$78.8/bbl in 1Q24, 2% above our forecast. The narrower discount of regional benchmarks to major benchmarks like Brent enabled the company to sell at relatively higher price.
其已實現的油價在24年第一季度同比上漲6％，至78.8美元/桶，比我們的預測高出2％。區域基準對布倫特等主要基準的折扣較小，這使該公司能夠以相對較高的價格出售。
The company's total oil and gas output grew 10% YoY to 180.1m BOE, 1% above our forecast. In which, the total output of overseas projects surged 17% YoY to 56.9m BOE mainly on the strong growth in South America and Canada. The former was mainly driven by new projects at Guyana and the latter came from the improved productivity at its Long Lake oil sand project.
該公司的石油和天然氣總產量同比增長10％，達到1.801億英國央行，比我們的預測高出1％。其中，海外項目的總產出同比增長17％，達到5,690萬英國央行，這主要是由於南美和加拿大的強勁增長。前者主要由圭亞那的新項目推動，後者來自其長湖油砂項目生產率的提高。
The company should see higher earnings in 2Q24 as Brent has stood firmly above US$85/bbl since mid-March. As long as it can hold, we see upside risk in our earnings forecasts as we assume average price of Brent to be US$81/bbl.
由於布倫特原油自3月中旬以來一直穩居在每桶85美元以上，該公司將在24年第二季度看到更高的收益。只要它能持續，我們在收益預測中就看到了上行風險，因爲我們假設布倫特原油的平均價格爲每桶81美元。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Sharp fall in oil price.
油價急劇下跌。
Higher-than-expected costs.
成本高於預期。
Valuation
估價
We adjust our 2024-26 earnings forecasts by -0.5% to +1.9% after updating our model with its 1Q24 results and its annual report. We also increase our SOTP NAV from HK$21.09 to HK$21.90.
在使用其24年第一季度業績和年度報告更新模型後，我們將2024-26年的收益預測調整了-0.5％，至+ 1.9％。我們還將SOTP資產淨值從21.09港元提高至21.90港元。
We raise our target price from HK$19.95 to HK$21.84 as we increase our target valuation from 1.5x standard deviation above mean to 2x (now at 0.3% discount vs 5.4% discount previously) in terms of 5-year rolling discount of share price to our estimated NAV. The company's strong performance and investors' preference of high yield plays merit smaller discount.
我們將目標價格從19.95港元上調至21.84港元，因爲我們將目標估值從高於平均水平的1.5倍標準差提高到2倍（目前爲0.3％的折扣，之前的折扣爲5.4％）。該公司的強勁表現和投資者對高收益股票的偏愛值得降低折扣。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。