Yintai Gold Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000975) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.5% to CN¥18.44 in the week after its latest quarterly results. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of CN¥2.8b coming in 8.2% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of CN¥0.51, in line with analyst appraisals. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Yintai Gold's eleven analysts is for revenues of CN¥9.94b in 2024. This would reflect a decent 14% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 22% to CN¥0.72. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥9.89b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.69 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Yintai Gold's earnings potential following these results.

The consensus price target was unchanged at CN¥19.08, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Yintai Gold, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥21.50 and the most bearish at CN¥16.65 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Yintai Gold's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 20% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 11% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 9.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Yintai Gold is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Yintai Gold's earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥19.08, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Yintai Gold. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Yintai Gold analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Yintai Gold that we have uncovered.

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