SHANGFENG CEMENT(000672):DIVIDEND PAYOUT RATIO RISES SHARPLY; DEMAND FROM CORE MARKETS TO STABILIZE AND RALLY
SHANGFENG CEMENT(000672):DIVIDEND PAYOUT RATIO RISES SHARPLY; DEMAND FROM CORE MARKETS TO STABILIZE AND RALLY
2023 results miss our forecast
2023 年的業績未達到我們的預期
Shangfeng Cement announced its 2023 results: Revenue fell 10.3% YoY to Rmb6.40bn and net profit attributable to shareholders fell 21.6% YoY to Rmb744mn. In 4Q23, revenue fell 22.9% YoY to Rmb1.52bn and net profit attributable to shareholders fell 57.4% YoY to Rmb43.75mn. The firm's 2023 results missed our expectations, mainly due to a decline in per-tonne earnings and higher-than-expected impairment and fair value change losses in 4Q23.
上峯水泥公佈了其2023年業績：收入同比下降10.3％，至人民幣64.0億元，股東應占淨利潤同比下降21.6％，至7.44億元人民幣。在23年第四季度，收入同比下降22.9％至人民幣15.2億元，歸屬於股東的淨利潤同比下降57.4％，至人民幣4,375萬元。該公司2023年的業績未達到我們的預期，這主要是由於每噸收益下降以及23年第四季度的減值和公允價值變動虧損高於預期。
Sales volume rebounded YoY thanks to on-stream operation of new production lines. In 2023, the firm's cement and clinker sales volume rose 11% YoY to about 21.45mnt, which we attribute to the incremental contribution from the on-stream operation of its production line in Duyun, Guizhou.
得益於新生產線的上線運營，銷量同比回升。2023年，該公司的水泥和熟料銷售量同比增長11％，達到約21.45億噸，我們將其歸因於其位於貴州都勻的生產線在運運營的增量貢獻。
Average price and gross profit per tonne under pressure. Due to fierce price competition in the industry, the average price per tonne of cement and clinker dropped Rmb59 or 19% YoY to Rmb249 in 2023, and the gross profit per tonne fell Rmb28 YoY to Rmb60.
平均價格和每噸毛利面臨壓力。由於該行業激烈的價格競爭，每噸水泥和熟料的平均價格在2023年下降了59元人民幣至249元人民幣，同比下降了19％，每噸毛利潤同比下降28元至60元人民幣。
Efficiency improving in northwest China but under pressure in east China. Due to falling demand and fiercer price competition, the firm's revenue from east China fell 19.3% YoY to Rmb4.39bn in 2023, and its gross margin declined 8.93ppt YoY to 26.8%. However, it maintained sound operating efficiency in northwest China, with revenue up 5.0% YoY to Rmb1.28bn and gross margin up 11.45ppt YoY to 44.6%.
中國西北地區的效率有所提高，但華東地區面臨壓力。由於需求下降和價格競爭加劇，該公司在華東地區的收入在2023年同比下降19.3％至43.9億元人民幣，毛利率同比下降8.93個百分點至26.8％。但是，它在中國西北地區保持了良好的運營效率，收入同比增長5.0％至12.8億元人民幣，毛利率同比增長11.45個百分點至44.6％。
Expense ratio increased. In 2023, the firm's selling, G&A, R&D, and financial expense ratios stood at 2.2%, 10.3%, 2.3%, and 0.3%, up 0.3ppt, up 2.1ppt, down 0.5ppt, and largely flat YoY.
支出比率上升。2023年，該公司的銷售、併購、研發和財務費用比率分別爲2.2％、10.3％、2.3％和0.3％，增長0.3個百分點，增長2.1個百分點，下降0.5個百分點，同比基本持平。
Impairment and fair value changes weighed on profit. The firm's provisions for asset impairment losses and credit impairment losses totaled Rmb67.01mn in 2023, and its losses from fair value changes totaled about Rmb42.98mn in 4Q23, both rising sharply YoY and weighing on the profit in 4Q23.
減值和公允價值變化打壓了利潤。2023年，該公司的資產減值損失和信用減值損失準備金總額爲人民幣6701萬元，其公允價值變動造成的虧損在23年第四季度共計約4298萬元人民幣，均同比大幅增長，並打壓了23年第四季度的利潤。
Cash flow remained solid; dividend payout ratio rose sharply. In 2023, the firm's net operating cash flow rose 9.53% YoY to Rmb1.12bn, implying solid cash flow despite weaker earnings. According to the firm's 2023 profit distribution plan, its dividend payout ratio rose sharply to 51.4%, up about 16ppt YoY.
現金流保持穩定；股息支付率大幅上升。2023年，該公司的淨運營現金流同比增長9.53％，至11.2億元人民幣，這意味着儘管收益疲軟，但現金流仍穩健。根據該公司2023年的利潤分配計劃，其股息支付率大幅上升至51.4％，同比增長約16個百分點。
Trends to watch
值得關注的趨勢
Business climate in core markets to stabilize and recover. We believe the firm still sees solid demand from east China. As the industry continues to record meager earnings or even losses, companies increasingly seek to raise product prices. If the industry withstands the pressure during the slack season, we expect the firm to raise product prices and improve its earnings in core markets in 2H24 as funds becomes available and demand increases.
核心市場的商業環境將穩定和復甦。我們認爲，該公司仍然看到來自華東地區的強勁需求。隨着該行業繼續創下微薄的收益甚至虧損，越來越多的公司尋求提高產品價格。如果該行業在疲軟季節承受住壓力，我們預計隨着資金的可用和需求的增加，該公司將在24年下半年提高產品價格並改善其在覈心市場的收益。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
As we lower our assumptions for earnings per tonne, we cut our 2024/2025 attributable net profit 18.7%/15.0% to Rmb740mn/Rmb840mn. The stock is trading at 9.4x 2024e and 8.2x 2025e P/E. We maintain OUTPERFORM and cut our target price 17.7% to Rmb9.3, implying 12.2x 2024e and 10.7x 2025e P/E, offering 30.3% upside.
隨着我們下調每噸收益的假設，我們將2024/2025年的應占淨利潤下調了18.7％/15.0％，至7.4億元人民幣/8.4億元人民幣。該股的交易價格爲2024年的9.4倍，2025年市盈率爲8.2倍。我們維持跑贏大盤並將目標價下調17.7％至9.3元人民幣，這意味着2024年市盈率爲12.2倍，2025年市盈率爲10.7倍，上漲幅爲30.3％。
Risks
風險
Weaker-than-expected demand; fiercer price competition.
需求低於預期；價格競爭更加激烈。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。