CIMC ENRIC(3899.HK):MIXED PERFORMANCE IN 1Q24
CIMC ENRIC(3899.HK):MIXED PERFORMANCE IN 1Q24
Mixed performance in 1Q24
24 年第一季度的表现好坏参半
Enric's turnover slipped 7% YoY to RMB4.6bn in 1Q24 mainly on the weak performance of the chemical and environmental segment. On the positive front, the strong momentum of new orders continued with the value of new orders signed surging 36% YoY over the same period. Clean energy segment was again the best performer. We believe Enric will see decent earnings growth in the coming few years with the green transition of marine fuel as the near-term driver and the contributions from JVs with steel mills being the medium-term driver. Although we trim our 2024-26 earnings forecasts by 2-4%, we reiterate our BUY call with target price reduced to HK$8.86.
安瑞科的营业额在24年第一季度同比下降7％，至46亿元人民币，这主要是由于化学和环境板块表现疲软。从积极的方面来看，新订单的强劲势头仍在继续，同期新签订的订单价值同比激增36％。清洁能源板块再次表现最好。我们相信，在未来几年中，Enric将实现可观的收益增长，船用燃料的绿色转型是短期驱动力，与钢厂合资企业的贡献是中期驱动力。尽管我们将2024-26年的盈利预期下调了2-4％，但我们重申了买入看涨期权，目标价下调至8.86港元。
Key Factors for Rating
评级的关键因素
Turnover of the clean energy segment grew 21% YoY to RMB3,255m in 1Q24, mainly on the strong growth in offshore products and LNG on-truck cylinders. Revenue of the latter jumped 15x YoY to about RMB250m as the domestic sales of LNG trucks jumped 1.35x YoY amid lower gas price.
清洁能源板块的营业额在24年第一季度同比增长21％，达到32.55亿元人民币，这主要是由于海上产品和液化天然气车载气瓶的强劲增长。由于天然气价格下跌，液化天然气卡车的国内销售同比增长1.35倍，后者的收入同比增长了15倍，达到约2.5亿元人民币。
However, it was more than offset by the declines in revenue at the other two segments. The revenue of chemical and environmental segment plummeted 59% YoY on lower demand. The turnover of liquid food segment dropped 12% YoY on the delay of two turnkey brewery projects as instructed by clients.
但是，其他两个细分市场收入的下降足以抵消这一点。由于需求减少，化工和环境板块的收入同比下降了59％。根据客户的指示，由于两个交钥匙啤酒厂项目延期，液态食品板块的营业额同比下降了12％。
The value of the company's new orders signed surged 36% YoY to RMB7.5bn in 1Q24. Clean energy segment was again the star performer with new order value doubled to RMB6.2bn. In which, offshore products and LNG on-truck cylinders accounted for RMB3bn and RMB350m (up 9x YoY) respectively.
该公司签署的新订单价值在24年第一季度同比激增36％至75亿元人民币。清洁能源板块再次成为表现最好的板块，新订单额翻了一番，达到62亿元人民币。其中，海上产品和车载液化天然气瓶分别占人民币30亿元和3.5亿元人民币（同比增长9倍）。
While the value of new orders of the other two segments both dropped, the 13% QoQ growth of the chemical and environmental segment could be an early sign of recovery.
尽管其他两个细分市场的新订单价值均有所下降，但化工和环境板块环比增长13％可能是复苏的早期迹象。
Its order backlog at end-1Q24 surged 42% YoY to RMB26.9bn. The strong order backlog provides a solid foundation for the growth ahead.
其在第二季度末的订单积压同比增长42％，至269亿元人民币。强劲的订单积压为未来的增长提供了坚实的基础。
Key Risks for Rating
评级的主要风险
Worse-than-expected falls in profit of the chemical and environmental segment.
化学和环境板块的利润下降幅度低于预期。
Liquid food segment fails to live up with our forecast.
液态食品细分市场未能达到我们的预测。
Valuation
估价
We lower our target price from HK$9.81 to HK$8.86 after the trim in our earnings forecasts. We still set our target valuation at 0.9x 2024-26E PEG and the 2024- 26E EPS CAGR decelerates from 16.1% to 15.2% under our new forecast.
在下调收益预测后，我们将目标价格从9.81港元下调至8.86港元。根据我们的新预测，我们仍将目标估值定为2024-26E的0.9倍，2024-26年的每股收益复合年增长率从16.1％减速至15.2％。
译文内容由第三方软件翻译。