XIAOMI(1810.HK):KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM XIAOMI INVESTOR DAY
XIAOMI(1810.HK):KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM XIAOMI INVESTOR DAY
We attended Xiaomi Investor Day 2024 in Beijing on 23 Apr. Key takeaways include: 1) SU7 sales target: 100k units in 2024 and 10k monthly delivery in June. 2) SU7 GPM target of 5-10% in 2024. 3) SU7 breakeven at 300-400k sales per year; 4) City NOA available in May and to be rolled out nationwide in Aug; 5) Smart EV sales/service centre: target to cover 46/82 cities by end of 2024; 6) Smart driving team: 1.5k/2k staff by 2024/25 from 1k currently; 7) 2024 guidance: RMB300bn in revenue with RMB24bn in expenses. Overall, we believe SU7's sales/ GPM target exceeded market expectations, and we remain positive on Xiaomi's strong branding and unique "Human-car-home" ecosystem as major competitive edges over peers. Reiterate BUY. Near-term catalysts include Auto Show Beijing (25-27 Apr), 1Q24 results in May and 10k SU7 monthly shipments in June.
我們於4月23日在北京參加了2024年小米投資者日。主要收穫包括：1) SU7的銷售目標：2024年10萬輛，6月的月交付量爲1萬輛。2) SU7的盈虧平衡目標爲2024年5-10％。3) SU7實現盈虧平衡，年銷量爲30-40萬輛；4) City NOA將於5月上市，將於8月在全國推出；5) 智能電動汽車銷售/服務中心：目標是到2024年底，覆蓋46/82個城市；6) 智能駕駛團隊：到2024/25年，員工人數從目前的1萬人增加到1.5萬人；7) 2024年的指導方針：收入3000億元人民幣，支出爲240億元人民幣。總體而言，我們認爲SU7的銷售/GPM目標超出了市場預期，我們仍然樂觀地認爲小米強大的品牌和獨特的 “Human-car-Home” 生態系統是相對於同行的主要競爭優勢。重申 “買入”。短期催化劑包括北京車展（4月25日至27日）、5月的24年第一季度業績以及6月的1萬輛SU7的月出貨量。
Xiaomi SU7: 100k sales target and 5-10% GPM in 2024; Breakeven target at 300-400k sales/year. During the event, mgmt. reiterated strong order demand for SU7 since launch, and non-refundable orders now reached 70k with a higher share of high-end SU7 MAX model. Xiaomi also announced the 100k sales target for SU7 in 2024, and expected monthly delivery to reach 10k units in June. In addition, mgmt. stated that SU7 GPM may reach 5-10% in 2024, above our expectations, and EV business may reach breakeven at 300-400k sales volume per year. For the next three years, Xiaomi SU7 will focus on China market, and expand to overseas market at a later stage. To enhance smart driving capability, Xiaomi aims to expand smart driving team size to 1.5k/2k by 2024/25 from 1k currently. Company also targets to expand EV sale/service centre coverage to 46/82 cities by end of 2024.
小米SU7：2024年的銷售目標爲10萬輛，GPM爲5-10％；盈虧平衡目標爲每年300-40萬的銷售額。活動期間，mgmt. 重申了自上市以來對SU7的強勁訂單需求，不可退款的訂單現已達到7萬份，高端SU7 MAX車型的份額有所增加。小米還宣佈了2024年SU7的10萬輛銷量目標，並預計6月份的月交付量將達到1萬臺。此外，管理層表示，SU7的GPM在2024年可能達到5-10％，超出我們的預期，電動汽車業務可能會達到盈虧平衡，每年銷量爲300-40萬輛。未來三年，小米SU7將專注於中國市場，並在稍後階段擴展到海外市場。爲了增強智能駕駛能力，小米的目標是到2024/25年，將智能駕駛團隊的規模從目前的1k擴大到1.5k/2k。公司還計劃到2024年底將電動汽車銷售/服務中心的覆蓋範圍擴大到46/82個城市。
2024 guidance: RMB300bn in revenue, RMB24bn in R&D exp. (inc. RMB11-12bn EV-related), +15-20mn smartphone shipments. For 2024, mgmt. guided revenue could reach RMB300 for core business, and R&D expenses could reach RMB24bn (incl. RMB11-12bn for EV-related). For smartphone, company targets 15-20mn more shipments in 2024 (vs 146mn in 2023). Xiaomi's 1Q24 smartphone shipments grew 34% YoY to 40.8mn, based on IDC.
2024年的指導方針：收入爲3000億元人民幣，研發支出爲240億元人民幣。（包括110億至120億元人民幣（與電動汽車相關），智能手機出貨量+1500萬至2,000萬元。到2024年，核心業務的管理指導收入可能達到 RMB300，研發費用可能達到240億元人民幣（包括與電動汽車相關的110億至120億元人民幣）。在智能手機方面，該公司的目標是在2024年增加1500萬至2,000萬部（而2023年爲1.46億部）。根據IDC的數據，小米24年第一季度的智能手機出貨量同比增長34％，達到4,080萬部。
Valuation/Key risks. Overall, market reacted positively to Xiaomi's SU7 sales/GPM target in 2024 and upcoming expansion plan. In the near term, order momentum, shipment ramp-up and consumer feedback will be major share price catalysts. Looking ahead, we remain positive on Xiaomi's unique "Human-car-home" ecosystem as a major differentiator from peers. Reiterate BUY with SOTP-based TP of HK$22.19.
估值/主要風險。總體而言，市場對小米在2024年的SU7銷售額/GPM目標以及即將到來的擴張計劃做出了積極的反應。在短期內，訂單勢頭、出貨量增加和消費者反饋將成爲股價的主要催化劑。展望未來，我們仍然樂觀地認爲小米獨特的 “人車之家” 生態系統是與同行的主要差異化因素。重申買入，基於止損標準的目標價爲22.19港元。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。