If you're looking at a mature business that's past the growth phase, what are some of the underlying trends that pop up? More often than not, we'll see a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) and a declining amount of capital employed. This reveals that the company isn't compounding shareholder wealth because returns are falling and its net asset base is shrinking. Having said that, after a brief look, Barnes Group (NYSE:B) we aren't filled with optimism, but let's investigate further.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. To calculate this metric for Barnes Group, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.058 = US$170m ÷ (US$3.3b - US$397m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).

Therefore, Barnes Group has an ROCE of 5.8%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Machinery industry average of 13%.

Above you can see how the current ROCE for Barnes Group compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free analyst report for Barnes Group .

What Does the ROCE Trend For Barnes Group Tell Us?

There is reason to be cautious about Barnes Group, given the returns are trending downwards. To be more specific, the ROCE was 9.6% five years ago, but since then it has dropped noticeably. On top of that, it's worth noting that the amount of capital employed within the business has remained relatively steady. This combination can be indicative of a mature business that still has areas to deploy capital, but the returns received aren't as high due potentially to new competition or smaller margins. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on Barnes Group becoming one if things continue as they have.

What We Can Learn From Barnes Group's ROCE

In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock. Investors haven't taken kindly to these developments, since the stock has declined 30% from where it was five years ago. Unless there is a shift to a more positive trajectory in these metrics, we would look elsewhere.

Barnes Group does have some risks, we noticed 3 warning signs (and 1 which is significant) we think you should know about.

While Barnes Group isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.