Incidents:
The company released its 2023 performance report. In 2023, it achieved revenue of 1,951 million yuan/ -12.05%, net profit to mother of 72 million yuan/ -9.50%, and net profit of 52 million yuan/ -27.36% after deducting non-return to mother net profit.
Comment:
The company achieved total revenue of 1,951 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.05%, due to phased adjustments in downstream customer investment, and increased competition in the domestic intelligent logistics system industry, leading to a decline in operating income in 2023; realized operating profit of 70 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.96%; net profit to the mother of 72 million yuan, a decrease of 9.50% year on year; net profit after deducting 52 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.36%.
Downstream is deeply tied to leading customers and has extensive experience in implementing major projects. The company's representative projects include the first transit center project in Asia and the fourth cargo hub airport in the world - the SF Express Ezhou Huahu Airport Transit Center Project, the first batch of two unmanned postal processing center projects - China Post Guangzhou South China Land Mail Processing Center Project, and the Beijing Post Project. The company's products mainly include intelligent sorting systems, intelligent transmission systems, etc., and have the ability to provide customized, specialized and intelligent intelligent logistics systems and technical services in various application scenarios for terminal customers. At the same time, the company is also actively exploring the field of intelligent special vehicles.
Intelligent logistics is an integral part of Industry 4.0, and the future development of intelligent logistics systems is essential. The company focuses on the main development line of the intelligent logistics system industry, continues to increase investment in R&D, continuously enriches product categories and optimizes product performance. R&D expenses have increased compared to the previous year. The company is the drafting unit for the “Drone Logistics Distribution Operation Requirements” industry standard.
Through continuous integration and optimization of internal resources, the company strengthened budget management, and sales and management expenses all declined year-on-year. The company's customer concentration is high, and project orders are mainly obtained through signing annual framework agreements and bidding, so the sales cost ratio is at a low level in the industry.
In the context of the new normal of the economy, industrial upgrading, and changes in the social environment, the demand to reduce logistics costs and improve logistics efficiency is driving the continuous expansion of the intelligent logistics system industry; the disappearance of demographic dividends and the continuous rise in labor costs further highlight the cost advantages of intelligent logistics systems; continuous development and personalized demand in segments such as downstream express logistics and e-commerce platforms are the driving forces for the continuous upgrading of intelligent logistics technology and the widespread application of intelligent logistics systems. China Post Technology has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with XunAnt to jointly build a drone mail network. Currently, XunAnt has implemented medical transportation networks in more than 20 cities across the country.
Investment suggestions: We make a profit forecast based on the 2023 performance report. The company is a pioneer in the field of intelligent logistics systems in China, with leading domestic technology reserves and good development prospects. The company's revenue for 2023-2025 is 19.52/22.58/25.73 billion yuan respectively, net profit to mother is 0.72/0.87/101 million yuan, corresponding EPS is 0.53/0.64/0.74 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 57.71/47.62/41.07X, covered for the first time. Give it an “gain” rating.
Risk warning: R&D falls short of expectations, performance and valuation judgments fall short of expectations, etc.