Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, The Middleby Corporation (NASDAQ:MIDD) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
How Much Debt Does Middleby Carry?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Middleby had US$2.43b of debt in December 2023, down from US$2.72b, one year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$250.4m, its net debt is less, at about US$2.17b.
How Strong Is Middleby's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Middleby had liabilities of US$851.1m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$2.81b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$250.4m as well as receivables valued at US$691.6m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$2.71b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit isn't so bad because Middleby is worth US$7.64b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Middleby's debt is 2.5 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 6.1 times over. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. We saw Middleby grow its EBIT by 6.5% in the last twelve months. Whilst that hardly knocks our socks off it is a positive when it comes to debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Middleby can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Middleby produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 59% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Our View
Both Middleby's ability to to convert EBIT to free cash flow and its EBIT growth rate gave us comfort that it can handle its debt. On the other hand, its net debt to EBITDA makes us a little less comfortable about its debt. When we consider all the elements mentioned above, it seems to us that Middleby is managing its debt quite well. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 1 warning sign with Middleby , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.