YUNNAN TIN(000960):2023 RESULTS MISS OUR EXPECTATIONS; ON TRACK TO BENEFIT FROM RISING TIN PRICES IN 2024
YUNNAN TIN(000960):2023 RESULTS MISS OUR EXPECTATIONS; ON TRACK TO BENEFIT FROM RISING TIN PRICES IN 2024
2023 results miss our expectations
2023 年的業績未達到我們的預期
Yunnan Tin announced its 2023 results: Revenue declined 18.5% YoY to Rmb42.4bn in 2023, and net profit attributable to shareholders grew 4.6% YoY to Rmb1.41bn. In 4Q23, revenue fell 11.5% YoY and 19.6% QoQ to Rmb8.7bn, and net profit attributable to shareholders rose Rmb312mn YoY but fell 23.2% QoQ to Rmb313mn. The results missed our expectations due to falling tin and zinc prices.
雲南錫業公佈了其2023年業績：收入同比下降18.5％，至2023年人民幣424億元，股東應占淨利潤同比增長4.6％，至14.1億元人民幣。在23年第四季度，收入同比下降11.5％，環比下降19.6％，至人民幣87億元，歸屬於股東的淨利潤同比增長3.12億元人民幣，但環比下降23.2％，至3.13億元人民幣。由於錫鋅價格下跌，業績未達到我們的預期。
Falling sales volume and prices of tin products weighed on operating results; sharp decline in asset impairment losses in 2023 supported a YoY recovery in overall earnings. Prices: According to iFinD, the average prices of tin, zinc and copper in China changed -13%, -14% and +2% YoY to Rmb212,406, Rmb21,505 and Rmb68,041/t in 2023. Volume: According to the firm's announcement, its output of tin, zinc, and copper raw ore metals was 31,958t, 122,631t and 30,625t in 2023, changing -7%, +17% and -3% YoY. Asset impairment: According to the firm's announcement, its provisions for asset impairment losses in 2023 reduced Rmb1bn compared to in 2022.
錫產品銷量和價格的下降打壓了經營業績；2023年資產減值損失的急劇下降支持了整體收益的同比回升。價格：根據iFinD的數據，2023年中國錫、鋅和銅的平均價格同比變化了-13％、-14％和+2％，至212,406元人民幣、21,505元人民幣和68,041元人民幣。數量：根據該公司的公告，其錫、鋅和銅原礦石金屬的產量在2023年分別爲31,958噸、122,631噸和30,625噸，同比增長-7％、增長17％和-3％。資產減值：根據該公司的公告，其2023年的資產減值準備金與2022年相比減少了10億元人民幣。
Operating quality improving; dividend payout ratio growing. The firm's capital structure continued to improve in 2023. Its cost of funds declined and returns to investors improved. According to the firm's announcement, its liability-to-asset ratio fell 3.6ppt YoY in 2023. The firm's average borrowing rate fell 0.5ppt YoY according to our estimates, and the cash dividend ratio rose 15.7ppt YoY.
運營質量改善；股息支付率增長。該公司的資本結構在2023年繼續改善。其資金成本下降了，投資者的回報也有所改善。根據該公司的公告，其負債與資產比率在2023年同比下降了3.6個百分點。根據我們的估計，該公司的平均借款利率同比下降0.5個百分點，現金分紅率同比增長15.7個百分點。
Trends to watch
值得關注的趨勢
Ample tin and indium resources lay a solid foundation for the firm's leading position in both tin and indium industries; aiming to increase output of tin and copper in 2024. According to the firm's announcement, Yunnan Tin has ranked No.1 in the world in terms of output and sales volume of tin since 2005, and its share of the domestic and global tin market was 47.92% and 22.92% in 2023, up 0.14ppt and 0.38ppt YoY. Second, the firm has the largest reserves of indium resources in the world and the largest production base of primary indium in China. Third, Yunnan Tin plans to produce around 85,000t, 131,600t and 130,000t of tin, zinc and copper products in 2024, changing +6%, -2% and +0.5% YoY.
充足的錫和銦資源爲公司在錫和銦行業的領先地位奠定了堅實的基礎；目標是在2024年增加錫和銅的產量。根據該公司的公告，自2005年以來，雲南錫業的錫產量和銷售量一直位居世界第一，其在國內和全球錫市場的份額在2023年分別爲47.92％和22.92％，同比增長0.14個百分點和0.38個百分點。其次，該公司擁有世界上最大的銦資源儲量和中國最大的初級銦生產基地。第三，雲南錫業計劃在2024年生產約8.5萬噸、13.16萬噸和13萬噸錫、鋅和銅產品，同比增長6％、-2％和+ 0.5％。
Improving supply and demand conditions in the tin industry may push up average tin prices in the medium and long term; we are upbeat on the firm's profit growth driven by rising tin prices. We believe the rapid growth of the PV industry, the continued development of AI large models, and the recovery in the semiconductor industry will boost tin demand, and improving supply and demand conditions will drive up average tin prices amid supply disruptions in Myanmar and Indonesia. According to the firm's announcement, tin products are its largest source of profit, which accounted for 41.5% of its gross profit in 2023. We are upbeat on the firm's profit growth driven by rising tin prices.
錫業供需條件的改善可能會在中長期推高平均錫價格；我們對錫價上漲推動的公司利潤增長持樂觀態度。我們認爲，光伏行業的快速增長、人工智能大型模型的持續發展以及半導體行業的復甦將提振錫需求，而在緬甸和印度尼西亞供應中斷的情況下，供需條件的改善將推高平均錫價格。根據該公司的公告，錫產品是其最大的利潤來源，佔其2023年毛利潤的41.5％。我們對錫價上漲推動該公司的利潤增長持樂觀態度。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
We keep our 2024 earnings forecast unchanged and introduce our 2025 net profit forecast of Rmb2.36bn. The stock is trading at 13x 2024e and 12.2x 2025e P/E. We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating. Considering that tight supply and demand conditions in the tin industry may lift average tin prices in the medium and long term and the nonferrous metal industry is undergoing a sector-wide re-rating, driving up the firm's valuation, we raise our target price 23% to Rmb21.5, implying 16x 2024e and 15x 2025e P/E, and offering 22.9% upside.
我們維持2024年的收益預測不變，並公佈了2025年23.6億元人民幣的淨利潤預測。該股的交易價格爲2024年的13倍，2025年市盈率爲12.2倍。我們維持跑贏大盤的評級。考慮到錫業供需緊張的條件可能會在中長期內提振平均錫價格，而且有色金屬行業正在進行全行業重新評級，推高了公司的估值，因此我們將目標價格上調23％至21.5元人民幣，這意味着2024年市盈率爲16倍，2025年市盈率爲15倍，上漲幅爲22.9％。
Risks
風險
Semiconductor demand disappoints; overseas tin supply beats expectation.
半導體需求令人失望；海外錫供應超出預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。