BOSIDENG INTERNATIONAL(3998.HK):STRONG FY2024 EXPECTED THANKS TO TAILWINDS
BOSIDENG INTERNATIONAL(3998.HK):STRONG FY2024 EXPECTED THANKS TO TAILWINDS
Bosideng International
波司登国际
Strong FY2024 expected thanks to tailwinds
受利好影响，预计 FY2024 表现强劲
Bosideng expects its FY2024 revenue to grow 30% YoY, far above market expectations. While we reckon Bosideng has done well in providing competitive products, we also believe it has managed to seize the opportunity to boost its sales amid pent-up demand and cold weather in early calendar year 2024. Bosideng is also attempting to further diversify away its reliance on down jackets, as it ramps up its bet on sun-protective clothing and outdoor jackets. Still, we believe it could take some time for Bosideng to prove that the new products could mitigate the seasonality risks, especially when the high base of FY24 is considered.
波司登预计，其 FY2024 收入将同比增长30％，远高于市场预期。尽管我们认为波司登在提供有竞争力的产品方面做得很好，但我们也认为，在需求被压抑和2024年初天气寒冷的情况下，波司登设法抓住机会促进销售。波司登还试图进一步分散对羽绒服的依赖，因为它加大了对防晒服装和户外夹克的赌注。尽管如此，我们认为波司登可能需要一些时间才能证明新产品可以减轻季节性风险，尤其是在考虑24财年的高基数的情况下。
Key Factors for Rating
评级的关键因素
FY24 performance a strong beat. Mgmt. of Bosideng expects FY2024 revenue to grow c.30% YoY, while net profit growth could be even higher when one-off items are accounted for. With this guidance considered, FY24 revenue could be 9% above Bloomberg consensus. In our latest revised estimates, this would mean 2HFY24 revenue/NP at RMB14.4bn/2.12bn, +36%/+51% YoY respectively. This could be the strongest 2HFY24 posted by Bosideng. On a full year basis, we now expect Bosideng's revenue/NP to be RMB21.9bn/3.05bn, up 30%/43% YoY respectively.
24 财年的业绩表现强劲。波司登管理层预计，FY2024 收入将同比增长约30％，而如果将一次性项目考虑在内，净利润增长可能会更高。考虑到这一指导方针，24财年的收入可能比彭博社的共识高出9％。在我们最新的修订估计中，这意味着 2HFY24 收入/净利润为人民币144亿元/21.2亿元，同比分别增长36％/+51％。这可能是波司登发布的最强的 2HFY24。按全年计算，我们现在预计波司登的收入/净利润为219亿元人民币/30.5亿元人民币，分别同比增长30％/43％。
Weather and pent-up demand boosted sales in FY24. Per mgmt., Bosideng's top 17% winter down jacket products accounted for 70% sales in the fiscal year. We believe this reflects extraordinary sales of winter products in 2HFY24 due to favourable seasonality. While we estimate that Bosideng recorded strong sales during its usual peak season (Nov - Jan), the unusual cold weather in Feb 2024 or weeks after Chinese New Year also brought additional sales. On the other hand, we also believe a base effect was in play, as sales of 2HFY23 (Oct 22 - Mar 23) were negatively impacted by lockdowns and nationwide infections of COVID-19.
天气和被压抑的需求推动了24财年的销售。根据管理层的统计，波司登排名前17％的冬季羽绒服产品占该财年销售额的70％。我们认为，这反映了由于有利的季节性，2HFY24 冬季产品的销售异常出色。虽然我们估计波司登在通常的旺季（11月至1月）销售强劲，但2024年2月或农历新年后几周不寻常的寒冷天气也带来了额外的销售。另一方面，我们也认为基本效应正在发挥作用，因为 2HFY23 的销售（10 月 22 日至 3 月 23 日）受到封锁和 COVID-19 全国感染的负面影响。
Ambitious target for FY25-27 despite a high base of FY24. Mgmt. reiterated its target for FY25-27: revenue CAGR not lower than that during FY20- 24. This would imply revenue CAGR FY25-27 to be 15.7% under our latest forecast. This could be ambitious, in our view, as FY24 has already achieved a 30% top-line growth.
尽管 24 财年的基数很高，但 FY25-27 的目标还是雄心勃勃。管理层重申了其 FY25-27 目标：收入复合年增长率不低于2020-24财年的复合年增长率。这意味着收入复合年增长率将比我们最新的预测低15.7％。FY25-27我们认为，这可能是雄心勃勃的，因为24财年的收入已经实现了30％的增长。
Lowering seasonality risks could take time. Since FY24, Bosideng started to ramp up products other than down jackets. These include sun-protective clothing and outdoor jackets. However, even though sun-protective item achieved strong growth (>300% per mgmt.), we estimate the contribution from this product is only <3% in FY24, and likely mid-S.D. in FY25. This means Bosideng is still relying on down apparels and subject to seasonality risk in FY25 and beyond.
降低季节性风险可能需要时间。自24财年以来，波司登开始增加羽绒服以外的产品。其中包括防晒衣和户外夹克。但是，尽管防晒产品实现了强劲的增长（每次管理增长超过300％），但我们估计该产品的贡献在24财年仅为
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