XTEP INTERNATIONAL(1368.HK):RECENT INCIDENT UNLIKELY TO DRAG ITS POST-1Q24 MOMENTUM
XTEP INTERNATIONAL(1368.HK):RECENT INCIDENT UNLIKELY TO DRAG ITS POST-1Q24 MOMENTUM
Xtep International
特步国际
Recent incident unlikely to drag its post-1Q24 momentum
最近的事件不太可能拖累其在24年第一季度之后的势头
Xtep's core brand reported a high single-digit growth for its 1Q24 retail sell-through, and sales have turned better in late March and April so far. While we believe the numbers are in-line with expectations, its operations have shown some encouraging signs. We believe Xtep would continue to demonstrate resilience with its appealing running shoe products. Hence, at this moment, we expect Xtep's risk of not meeting its 2024 guidance may not be that significant. We do not expect the recent controversy related to Beijing Half Marathon could impact the sales of Xtep, the sponsor of the race. The overreaction to this incident may provide a buying opportunity, in our view.
Xtep的核心品牌报告称，其24年第一季度零售销售额实现了高个位数的增长，到目前为止，3月下旬和4月的销售额有所好转。尽管我们认为这些数字符合预期，但其业务已显示出一些令人鼓舞的迹象。我们相信，Xtep将继续凭借其吸引人的跑鞋产品表现出韧性。因此，目前，我们预计Xtep未达到其2024年指引的风险可能并不那么大。我们预计最近与北京半程马拉松有关的争议不会影响该赛事赞助商特步的销售。我们认为，对这起事件的过度反应可能提供买入机会。
Key Factors for Rating
评级的关键因素
1Q24 performance in-line with expectations. Xtep's core brand recorded a high S.D. YoY growth for its retail sell-through, while other new brands such as Saucony and Palladium combined achieved >50% YoY growth in mainland China. For the core Xtep brand, its operating metrics have also improved versus previous quarters, as retail discount narrowed slightly to 25-30% in 1Q24. Channel-wise, online performed better (>25% YoY) due to base effect. These numbers are slightly better than some peers but largely in-line with expectations.
24 年第一季度的业绩符合预期。特步的核心品牌的零售销售额同比增长率较高，而索康尼和Palladium等其他新品牌在中国大陆合计实现了超过50％的同比增长。对于核心Xtep品牌而言，其运营指标也与前几个季度相比有所改善，零售折扣在24年第一季度略有缩小至25-30％。在渠道方面，由于基础效应，在线表现更好（同比超过25％）。这些数字略好于某些同行，但基本符合预期。
Confident to meet its 2024 revenue target. Xtep's retail sales have seen improvement in late March 2024, and the growth further accelerated to c.10% in early April. Mgmt. attributed this to popular launch of 360X, running shoes series that features carbon plate. In addition, mgmt. expected sales growth in May 2024 could further accelerate to >20%, due to a low base in 2023. Hence, they are confident in maintaining the guidance given in March 2024, i.e. achieving >10% revenue growth in 2024.
有信心实现其2024年的收入目标。特步的零售销售在2024年3月下旬有所改善，4月初增长进一步加速至约10％。Mgmt. 将其归因于以碳板为特色的360X跑鞋系列的广受欢迎推出。此外，由于2023年基数较低，管理层预计在2024年5月的销售增长可能会进一步加速至20％以上。因此，他们有信心维持2024年3月给出的指导方针，即在2024年实现超过10％的收入增长。
Incident of 14 April Beijing Half Marathon unlikely impactful. Mgmt. refused to comment on the controversy related to the race, where Xtep acts as the sponsor. However, we believe the incident is unlikely to affect the sales momentum, as: (1) it is common for professional runners to hire pacers, but this is not commonly known by the public, and (2) the key customers of Xtep are casual runners in low-tier cities who cares about value-for-money.
4月14日北京半程马拉松事件不太可能产生影响。Mgmt. 拒绝评论与竞赛有关的争议，Xtep是该竞赛的赞助商。但是，我们认为该事件不太可能影响销售势头，因为：（1）职业跑步者雇用步行者很常见，但这并不为公众所熟知，而且（2）Xtep的主要客户是低线城市的休闲跑步者，他们关心物有所值。
Key Risks for Rating
评级的主要风险
Downside risks: (1) unsuccessful multi-brand strategy; (2) deteriorated retail sell-through for core brand; (3) unexpected spike in spending, and (4) write-off of intangible assets due to acquisitions failing to meet expectations.
下行风险：（1）多品牌战略失败；（2）核心品牌的零售销售额恶化；（3）支出意外激增，（4）由于收购未能达到预期而注销无形资产。
Valuation
估价
Our TP of HK$5.90 is based on 12x 2024E P/E.
我们的目标价为5.90港元，以12倍的2024年市盈率为基础。
译文内容由第三方软件翻译。