For many, the main point of investing in the stock market is to achieve spectacular returns. And we've seen some truly amazing gains over the years. For example, the Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (NYSE:FIX) share price is up a whopping 434% in the last half decade, a handsome return for long term holders. And this is just one example of the epic gains achieved by some long term investors. Also pleasing for shareholders was the 50% gain in the last three months.
In light of the stock dropping 5.6% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Over half a decade, Comfort Systems USA managed to grow its earnings per share at 25% a year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 40% per year, over the same period. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. And that's hardly shocking given the track record of growth.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Comfort Systems USA's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Comfort Systems USA's TSR for the last 5 years was 452%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that Comfort Systems USA shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 131% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 41% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Comfort Systems USA has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
Comfort Systems USA is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
很高興看到Comfort Systems USA的股東在過去一年中獲得了131%的總股東回報率。當然,這包括股息。這比五年來41%的年化回報率要好,這意味着該公司最近的表現更好。在最好的情況下,這可能暗示着一些真正的業務勢頭,這意味着現在可能是深入研究的好時機。儘管市場狀況可能對股價產生的不同影響值得考慮,但還有其他因素更爲重要。例如,冒險吧——美國舒適系統公司有 1 個我們認爲你應該注意的警告標誌。