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Is Alight (NYSE:ALIT) A Risky Investment?

Is Alight (NYSE:ALIT) A Risky Investment?

Alight(紐約證券交易所代碼:ALIT)是一項風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  04/16 18:28

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Alight, Inc. (NYSE:ALIT) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

禾倫·巴菲特曾說過一句名言:“波動性遠非風險的代名詞。”當我們考慮一家公司的風險時,我們總是喜歡考慮其債務的用途,因爲債務過載可能導致破產。我們注意到,Alight, Inc.(紐約證券交易所代碼:ALIT)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但是這筆債務是股東關心的問題嗎?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

債務會帶來什麼風險?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

一般而言,只有當公司無法通過籌集資金或使用自己的現金流輕鬆還清債務時,債務才會成爲真正的問題。歸根結底,如果公司無法履行償還債務的法律義務,股東可能會一無所有地離開。儘管這種情況並不常見,但我們經常看到負債公司永久稀釋股東,因爲貸款人迫使他們以不良价格籌集資金。當然,許多公司使用債務爲增長提供資金,而不會產生任何負面後果。在考慮企業使用多少債務時,要做的第一件事是將現金和債務放在一起考慮。

What Is Alight's Net Debt?

什麼是 Alight 的淨負債?

The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Alight had US$2.79b in debt in December 2023; about the same as the year before. On the flip side, it has US$358.0m in cash leading to net debt of about US$2.44b.

您可以點擊下圖以獲取更多詳細信息,該圖表顯示,2023年12月,Alight的債務爲27.9億美元;與前一年大致相同。另一方面,它擁有3.58億美元的現金,淨負債約爲24.4億美元。

debt-equity-history-analysis
NYSE:ALIT Debt to Equity History April 16th 2024
紐約證券交易所:ALIT 債務與股本的比率歷史記錄 2024 年 4 月 16 日

How Strong Is Alight's Balance Sheet?

Alight 的資產負債表有多強?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Alight had liabilities of US$2.19b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$3.85b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$358.0m as well as receivables valued at US$805.0m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$4.88b.

根據上次報告的資產負債表,Alight的負債爲21.9億美元,12個月後到期的負債爲38.5億美元。除這些債務外,它有3.58億美元的現金以及價值8.05億美元的應收賬款在12個月內到期。因此,其負債超過其現金和(短期)應收賬款總額48.8億美元。

This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of US$5.32b. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.

相對於其53.2億美元的市值,這是一座巨大的槓桿率。這表明,如果公司需要迅速支撐資產負債表,股東將被嚴重稀釋。

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

我們使用兩個主要比率來告知我們相對於收益的債務水平。第一個是淨負債除以利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前的收益(EBITDA),第二個是其利息和稅前收益(EBIT)覆蓋其利息支出(或簡稱利息保障)的多少倍。因此,我們將債務與收益的關係考慮在內,包括和不包括折舊和攤銷費用。

Weak interest cover of 0.36 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.2 hit our confidence in Alight like a one-two punch to the gut. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. However, the silver lining was that Alight achieved a positive EBIT of US$47m in the last twelve months, an improvement on the prior year's loss. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Alight can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

0.36倍的薄弱利息覆蓋率和令人不安的高淨負債與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的比率5.2打擊了我們對Alight的信心,就像是一二的衝擊。這意味着我們會認爲它有沉重的債務負擔。但是,一線希望是,Alight在過去十二個月中實現了4700萬美元的正息稅前利潤,比去年的虧損有所改善。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但最終,該業務未來的盈利能力將決定Alight能否隨着時間的推移加強其資產負債表。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的想法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it is important to check how much of its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) converts to actual free cash flow. Over the last year, Alight actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. There's nothing better than incoming cash when it comes to staying in your lenders' good graces.

最後,儘管稅務人員可能喜歡會計利潤,但貸款人只接受冷硬現金。因此,重要的是要檢查其利息和稅前收益(EBIT)中有多少轉換爲實際自由現金流。去年,Alight產生的自由現金流實際上超過了息稅前利潤。在保持貸款人的支持方面,沒有什麼比流入的現金更好的了。

Our View

我們的觀點

Neither Alight's ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT nor its net debt to EBITDA gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But the good news is it seems to be able to convert EBIT to free cash flow with ease. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think Alight's debt poses some risks to the business. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn't really want to see it increase from here. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Alight that you should be aware of.

無論是Alight用息稅前利潤支付利息支出的能力,還是其淨負債佔息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的比例,都使我們對它承擔更多債務的能力充滿信心。但好消息是,它似乎能夠輕鬆地將息稅前利潤轉換爲自由現金流。綜合上述因素,我們確實認爲Alight的債務對業務構成了一些風險。因此,儘管這種槓桿率確實提高了股本回報率,但我們真的不希望看到它從現在開始增加。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但是,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。例如,我們已經確定了 Alight 的 1 個警告標誌,你應該注意這一點。

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

如果你有興趣投資能夠在沒有債務負擔的情況下增加利潤的企業,請查看這份資產負債表上有淨現金的成長型企業的免費清單。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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