Banking Sector Faces Caution Amid Absence of Catalysts
Banking Sector Faces Caution Amid Absence of Catalysts
HONG Leong Investment Bank Bhd (HLIB Research) is adopting a cautious perspective when analysing the local banking sector, as no immediate catalysts are foreseen to drive significant growth.
豐隆投資銀行有限公司（HLIB Research）在分析當地銀行業時採取了謹慎的觀點，因爲預計不會有直接的催化劑來推動顯著增長。
"All in all, the risk-reward now is balanced as there are no fresh positive catalysts to spur share prices significantly higher," the research house analyst Chan Jit Hoong said in his report recently.
研究機構分析師Chan Jit Hoong在最近的報告中表示：“總而言之，由於沒有新的積極催化劑可以刺激股價大幅上漲，現在的風險回報是平衡的。”
Hence, Chan suggests a 'Neutral' stance on the banking sector, maintaining current positions with a discerning eye on market dynamics and performance indicators.
因此，陳建議對銀行業採取 “中立” 立場，以敏銳的眼光看待市場動態和業績指標，維持目前的立場。
Missing Catalysts
缺少催化劑
In his analysis, Chan observed a more balanced risk-reward scenario within the banking sector, largely due to the absence of new positive catalysts capable of significantly boosting share prices of banking stocks.
陳在分析中觀察到銀行業內部的風險回報情景更加平衡，這主要是由於缺乏能夠顯著提振銀行股價格的新積極催化劑。
Additionally, his projections indicate a slower growth trajectory for sector profits in fiscal years 2024 and 2025, with expected rates of 6% and 4% respectively, compared to the robust 15% growth experienced in fiscal year 2023.
此外，他的預測表明，2024和2025財年的行業利潤增長軌跡將放緩，預期增長率分別爲6％和4％，而2023財年的強勁增長率爲15％。
This slower growth, he noted, lags behind the broader market performance, with the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) anticipated to rise at a quicker pace of 7% in fiscal year 2024.
他指出，這種增長放緩落後於整體市場表現，富時馬來西亞證券交易所KLCI（FBM KLCI）預計將在2024財年以7％的更快速度上漲。
Chan said several factors contribute to this subdued outlook, including the inability of the net interest margin (NIM) to recover meaningfully, anticipated deceleration in net operating income (NOI) growth and the absence of non-credit costs (NCC) write-backs.
陳說，有幾個因素導致了這種疲軟的前景，包括淨利率（NIM）無法有意義地恢復，淨營業收入（NOI）增長的預期減速以及沒有非信貸成本（NCC）回扣。
Despite these challenges, he said, valuations within the sector are not deemed excessive, prompting a cautious stance rather than a full-on bearish outlook.
他說，儘管存在這些挑戰，但該行業內部的估值並不被認爲過高，這促使人們採取謹慎的立場，而不是全面的看跌前景。
Within its coverage, HLIB Research has assigned a single large-cap 'Buy' rating to Public Bank Bhd with a target price of RM4.80 owing to its defensive qualities and multi-year low foreign shareholding.
在其報道範圍內，由於其防禦性質和多年來外國持股量較低，HLIB Research已將大盤股 “買入” 評級定爲單一的大盤股 “買入” 評級，目標價爲4.80令吉。
Among mid-sized banks, AMMB Holdings Bhd with a target price (TP) of RM4.60 is favoured for its potential dividend payout bandwidth in the near future.
在中型銀行中，目標價格（TP）爲4.60令吉的AMMB Holdings Bhd因其在不久的將來潛在的股息支付帶寬而備受青睞。
Furthermore, HLIB Research finds Alliance Bank Malaysia Bhd with a target price of RM3.95 appealing among small banks due to its inexpensive valuations.
此外，HLIB Research發現，由於估值低廉，目標價爲3.95令吉的馬來西亞聯盟銀行有限公司在小型銀行中頗具吸引力。
Leading Indicators Turned Weak
領先指標變弱
According to Chan, the banking sector statistics for February 2024 highlighted a steady but tempered growth trajectory in system loans, maintaining a positive year-onyear (YoY) increase of 5.8%.
根據陳的說法，2024年2月銀行業的統計數據突顯了系統貸款的穩定但緩和的增長軌跡，同比（YoY）保持了5.8％的正增長。
Notably, both household and business segments contributed to this growth, with resilient performances observed across various sub-segments.
值得注意的是，家庭和商業板塊都爲這種增長做出了貢獻，各個子細分市場的表現都表現強勁。
However, Chan noted the pace of deposit growth slowed to 4% YoY, signalling a potential shift in market dynamics.
但是，陳指出，存款增長速度同比放緩至4％，這表明市場動態可能發生變化。
Chan noted that leading indicators have weakened, as evidenced by a decline in loan applications by 11.3% YoY compared to an increase of 39.9% in January, and a drop of 16.8% YoY in loan approvals compared to an increase of 46.1% in January.
陳指出，領先指標有所減弱，貸款申請較1月份增長39.9％同比下降11.3％，貸款批准同比下降16.8％，比1月份的46.1％增長46.1％就證明了這一點。
Specifically, he noted that both household (HH) and business (Biz) segments experienced decreases in loan applications, with HH decreasing by 14.8% compared to an increase of 36.5% in January and Biz by 6.2% compared to an increase of 45.3% in January.
具體而言，他指出，家庭（HH）和商業（商業）板塊的貸款申請都出現了下降，HH與1月份的36.5％相比下降了14.8％，商業與1月份的增長45.3％相比下降了6.2％。
In terms of loan approvals, he said demand for credit diminished, with HH decreasing by 10.4% compared to an increase of 36.1% in January and Biz contracting by 23.4% compared to an increase of 58.6% in January.
在貸款批准方面，他表示，信貸需求有所減少，HH下降了10.4％，而1月份增長了36.1％，商業收縮了23.4％，而1月份的增長率爲58.6％。
Meanwhile, deposit growth moderated to 4% YoY in February 2024, down from 5.2% in January, primarily due to slower growth in foreign currency and 'other' deposits.
同時，存款同比增長從1月份的5.2％放緩至2024年2月的4％，這主要是由於外幣和 “其他” 存款增長放緩。
Despite this, the loan-to-deposit ratio for February 2024 remained steady month-on-month (MoM) at 86%, compared to its peak of 89% in February 2018.
儘管如此，2024年2月的貸款存款比率仍保持穩定，爲86％，而2018年2月的峯值爲89％。
The competition for fixed deposits (FD) continues to be fairly rational within the market.
市場內對定期存款（FD）的競爭仍然相當合理。
Net Interest Margin Stability
淨利率穩定性
Despite fluctuations in loan and deposit metrics, Chan said the net interest margin (NIM) is expected to exhibit stability in the first quarter of 2024 (1Q24).
儘管貸款和存款指標波動，但陳表示，淨利率（NIM）預計將在2024年第一季度（24年第一季度）表現出穩定。
This projection hinges on the exit of fixed deposits from a traditionally competitive quarter, suggesting a degree of equilibrium in interest rate dynamics.
這一預測取決於定期存款退出傳統競爭激烈的季度，這表明利率動態存在一定程度的平衡。
Meanwhile, asset quality in the sector remained stable, with February 2024's gross impaired loans (GIL) ratio holding steady MoM at 1.64%.
同時，該行業的資產質量保持穩定，2024年2月的總減值貸款（GIL）比率環比穩定在1.64％。
Although there was a slight decrease of 2 basis points (bps) in the Biz segment, the HH segment experienced a marginal increase of 2bps.
儘管商業板塊略有下降2個點子（點子），但HH板塊略有增長2個點子。
Looking ahead, Chan said there is minimal concern regarding potential deterioration in asset quality.
展望未來，陳說，對資產質量可能惡化的擔憂微乎其微。
His confidence stems from the belief that banks are better equipped to handle adverse scenarios compared to previous downturns.
他的信心源於這樣的信念，即與之前的衰退相比，銀行更有能力應對不利情景。
He noted that the substantial loan loss allowances accumulated over the past four years serve as a robust buffer, capable of cushioning any potential spike in the GIL ratio.
他指出，過去四年中積累的巨額貸款損失準備金是一個強大的緩衝區，能夠緩衝GIL比率的任何潛在飆升。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。