When researching a stock for investment, what can tell us that the company is in decline? Businesses in decline often have two underlying trends, firstly, a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) and a declining base of capital employed. Ultimately this means that the company is earning less per dollar invested and on top of that, it's shrinking its base of capital employed. So after glancing at the trends within Xinhuanet (SHSE:603888), we weren't too hopeful.

Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?

For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for Xinhuanet, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.021 = CN¥77m ÷ (CN¥4.8b - CN¥1.0b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).

Thus, Xinhuanet has an ROCE of 2.1%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Media industry average of 4.8%.

While the past is not representative of the future, it can be helpful to know how a company has performed historically, which is why we have this chart above. If you want to delve into the historical earnings , check out these free graphs detailing revenue and cash flow performance of Xinhuanet.

What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us

We are a bit worried about the trend of returns on capital at Xinhuanet. About five years ago, returns on capital were 6.8%, however they're now substantially lower than that as we saw above. Meanwhile, capital employed in the business has stayed roughly the flat over the period. This combination can be indicative of a mature business that still has areas to deploy capital, but the returns received aren't as high due potentially to new competition or smaller margins. If these trends continue, we wouldn't expect Xinhuanet to turn into a multi-bagger.

While on the subject, we noticed that the ratio of current liabilities to total assets has risen to 21%, which has impacted the ROCE. Without this increase, it's likely that ROCE would be even lower than 2.1%. While the ratio isn't currently too high, it's worth keeping an eye on this because if it gets particularly high, the business could then face some new elements of risk.

What We Can Learn From Xinhuanet's ROCE

All in all, the lower returns from the same amount of capital employed aren't exactly signs of a compounding machine. Long term shareholders who've owned the stock over the last five years have experienced a 20% depreciation in their investment, so it appears the market might not like these trends either. With underlying trends that aren't great in these areas, we'd consider looking elsewhere.

If you'd like to know more about Xinhuanet, we've spotted 3 warning signs, and 1 of them is potentially serious.

While Xinhuanet may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.