Introduction to this report:
Under the focus of energy digitalization and the two-wheel drive strategy of the Internet, the company's performance in 2023 was remarkable. The various resources connected to the company's platform are also growing rapidly. The share of this business has further increased, and future revenue growth may exceed expectations.
Key points of investment:
The increase rating was maintained, and the target price was lowered to 17.67 yuan (-5.7 yuan). Considering the time cycle of conversion of old and new kinetic energy in the power grid digitization business and the pace of energy platform business expansion, the company's 2024-2026 (new 2026) EPS forecast is 0.63 (-0.38), 0.75 (-0.51), and 0.86 yuan.
The company was given 27.84 times PE in 2024, with a target price of 17.67 yuan, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Focus on the “energy digitalization+energy internet” two-wheel drive development strategy. Performance has increased significantly.
In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 4.727 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.86%, net profit to mother of 604 million yuan, an increase of 17.44% year-on-year, and net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 533 million yuan, an increase of 33.64% over the previous year. Among them, the energy internet business saw a high increase in revenue, and its share of revenue increased significantly.
Welcome the Dongfeng in the construction of new power systems and build new momentum for the digital power grid business growth. Based on the basic digital business of the two networks, the company completed the launch of the marketing 2.0 system in Shanghai, Shanxi and other provinces. Focusing on the construction of new power systems, based on different load attributes and scenarios on the user side, the company has built and upgraded load control systems in two networks and multiple network provinces, formed rich solutions around hot topics such as marketing optimization, load forecasting, and carbon emissions, and strengthened exploration and development in combination with large models. The company's new service operation business has also been launched in many provinces, and the company's market position has been further consolidated and strengthened.
The share of the energy Internet business has increased significantly, and the platform's docking resources are expanding rapidly. The “New Electric Road” business has maintained rapid development. By the end of 2023, the platform's charging equipment coverage exceeded 1.1 million, the number of registered users of the platform exceeded 11 million, and the aggregate charging volume reached 4 billion kilowatts in 2023, doubling the year-on-year increase. The PV cloud platform is newly connected to about 140,000 distributed photovoltaic power plants, with a capacity of about 4 GW. Through the aggregation of resources such as distributed photovoltaic power plants, charging piles, energy storage, industrial and commercial customers, etc., as the company participates in market-based electricity sales, power auxiliary services, demand-side response, and green electricity aggregation transactions in many provinces, the growth rate of this business is expected to increase further in the future.
Risk warning: Grid investment expenses fall short of expectations, industry policies fall short of expectations.