TONGCHENG TRAVEL(780.HK):CONTINUED OUTPERFORMANCE DURING QINGMING
TONGCHENG TRAVEL(780.HK):CONTINUED OUTPERFORMANCE DURING QINGMING
The three-day Qingming Festival holiday embraced booming demand, with domestic tourist trips +11.5% and tourism revenue +12.7% (both vs. the 2019 level), according to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism. Tongcheng Travel (TC) kept its strong momentum during the Qingming Festival, with above-industry growth and solid ASP & take rate trends. Its domestic hotel room nights surged 70% YoY, and transportation ticketing volume was resilient at >20% YoY. We think such travel boom should support its 2Q24E momentum, coupled with the upcoming Labour Day holiday and Dragon Boat Festival. We reiterate TC as one of our top picks, for its resilient organic growth, M&A synergies, outbound expansion and capital return. We keep our FY24-26E earnings estimates unchanged, with a DCF-based TP at HK$26.1.
根據文化和旅遊部的數據，爲期三天的清明節假期迎來了蓬勃發展的需求，國內遊客旅行增長了11.5％，旅遊收入增長了12.7％（均爲2019年的水平）。同程旅遊（TC）在清明節期間保持了強勁的勢頭，業界以上的增長和穩健的ASP和接納率趨勢。其國內酒店房晚同比激增70％，交通票務量同比增長超過20％。我們認爲，這樣的旅遊熱潮應該支持其 2Q24E 勢頭，再加上即將到來的勞動節假期和端午節。我們重申，TC是我們的首選之一，因爲它具有彈性的有機增長、併購協同效應、對外擴張和資本回報。我們保持 FY24-26E 的收益預期不變，基於差價合約的目標價爲26.1港元。
Strong momentum during Qingming Festival. The three-day Qingming Festival holiday embraced booming demand, with 119mn domestic tourist trips (+11.5% vs. the 2019 level) and tourism revenue at RMB54bn (+12.7% vs. the 2019 level), according to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism. The solid industrial data suggests resilient ARPU from traveling consumption. Inbound & outbound trips recovered to 2019 levels, with 1.04mn inbound tourist trips and 992,000 outbound tourist trips. Japan, Thailand and Korea ranked top 3 destinations for outbound travel.
清明節期間勢頭強勁。根據文化和旅遊部的數據，爲期三天的清明節假期迎來了蓬勃發展的需求，國內遊客有1.19億人次（與2019年的水平相比增長11.5％），旅遊收入爲540億元人民幣（與2019年的水平相比增長12.7％）。穩健的工業數據表明，旅行消費的ARPU具有彈性。入境和出境旅行恢復到2019年的水平，入境遊客人數爲104萬人次，出境遊客人數爲99.2萬人次。日本、泰國和韓國排名前三的出境旅行目的地。
TC continued to outperform with above-industry growth. Among OTA players, TC continued to gain share with eye-catching growth during Qingming, with strong momentum in short-haul travel. For accommodation business, TC's domestic hotel room nights surged 70% YoY (on a three-day basis), in which growth in lower-tier cities surpassed that in high-tier cities. Hotel ADR increased 15% YoY, with an improving take rate. International hotel room nights grew 160% YoY (top 3 destinations were Thailand, Malaysia, and Japan), with ADR up 9%-10%. Package tours saw triple-digit growth during Qingming, with domestic orders +150% YoY and ASP +16% YoY. Outbound package tour ASP surged >100% YoY, boosted by bustling attractions (e.g., cherry blossom viewing in Japan, Jeju Island). For transportation business, domestic air ticketing volume rose 20% YoY, while international air ticketing jumped 200% YoY. Meanwhile, train ticket volume was resilient at +25% YoY. Based on TC's data, flower sightseeing, spring outings and exhilarating hikes emerged as top trends for holiday getaways, and Yangtze River Delta gained most popularity during Qingming.
TC繼續跑贏大盤，增長高於行業水平。在OTA玩家中，TC在清明期間繼續獲得份額，增長引人注目，短途旅行勢頭強勁。在住宿業務方面，TC的國內酒店客房住宿同比激增70％（按三天計算），其中低線城市的增長超過了高線城市。酒店ADR同比增長15％，接受率有所提高。國際酒店房晚同比增長160％（排名前三的目的地是泰國、馬來西亞和日本），ADR增長了9％-10％。清明期間，旅行團實現了三位數的增長，國內訂單同比增長150％，ASP同比增長16％。受繁華景點（例如日本賞櫻和濟州島）的推動，出境旅行套餐的ASP同比激增了超過100％。在運輸業務方面，國內航空票務量同比增長20％，而國際機票量同比增長200％。同時，火車票量保持彈性，同比增長25％。根據TC的數據，花卉觀光、春季郊遊和令人振奮的徒步旅行已成爲度假的熱門趨勢，而長三角在清明期間最受歡迎。
Maintain BUY. We keep our earnings estimates unchanged, with a DCF- based TP at HK$26.1, implying 21x FY24E P/E. TC's stock price saw a three- month rally, and we think its valuation is still not demanding, considering multiple catalysts ahead and high earnings visibility.
維持買入。我們維持盈利預期不變，基於差價合約的目標股價爲26.1港元，這意味着 FY24E 市盈率是21倍。TC的股價連續三個月上漲，考慮到未來多種催化劑和較高的盈利可見度，我們認爲其估值仍然不高。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。