HAIDILAO(6862.HK):LOOKING FOR EXPANSION OPPORTUNITIES WITH DOWNSIDE PROTECTION
HAIDILAO(6862.HK):LOOKING FOR EXPANSION OPPORTUNITIES WITH DOWNSIDE PROTECTION
We think Haidilao's downside is protected by its dividend (5.6% FY24E yield and the 90% payout ratio should sustain into the future), while the upside is highly dependent on its speed of store expansion (which is still very slow but we tend to think it will accelerate once the franchising model is finalized). Hence, we maintain BUY with a TP of HK$ 21.52, based on a 20x FY24E P/E. Noted that in the long run, the lack of growth drivers is still a concern.
我们认为海底捞的下行空间受其股息保护（5.6％的 FY24E 收益率和90％的派息率应持续到未来），而上行空间在很大程度上取决于其门店扩张的速度（仍然非常缓慢，但我们倾向于认为特许经营模式最终确定后它将加速）。因此，根据20倍的 FY24E 市盈率，我们维持买入，目标价为21.52港元。请注意，从长远来看，缺乏增长动力仍然是一个问题。
The momentum so far in 2024 is still intact. While the industry is still suffering (most of the brands are experiencing SSS decline), management highlighted that Haidilao's table turnover has further increased by over 30% in Jan-Feb 2024 (table turnover for CNY/ Valentine's Day were at around 5x/ 6x). The level retreated a bit in Mar 2024 but it was normal and was only due to seasonality.
2024年迄今为止的势头仍然完好无损。尽管该行业仍在遭受损失（大多数品牌的SSS下滑），但管理层强调，海底捞的餐桌营业额在2024年1月至2月进一步增长了30％以上（人民币/情人节的餐桌营业额约为5倍/6倍）。该水平在2024年3月略有回落，但这是正常的，只是季节性所致。
Management believes gradual improvement is likely and we think the margin can still improve. Management also believes the SSS recovery rate can still gradually improve throughout the year (table turn should climb while ASP may stabilize). Thanks to the refinement in staff costs structure (hiring more part-time staffs and the introduction of low base salary plus high bonus), breakeven point of table turnover had been lowered from 3x to around 2x to 3x. Therefore, as we expect table turnover to go up further to 4.2x in FY24E (from 3.8x in FY23), the OP margin could also increase to 14.6% in FY24E (from 14.3%).
管理层认为逐步改善是可能的，我们认为利润率仍然可以提高。管理层还认为，全年SSS的回收率仍可以逐步提高（局面应该会攀升，而ASP可能会稳定下来）。由于员工成本结构的完善（雇用更多的兼职员工，引入了低基本工资和高额奖金），员工流失率的盈亏平衡点已从3倍降低到2倍至3倍左右。因此，由于我们预计 FY24E 的餐桌营业额将进一步上升至4.2倍（从23财年的3.8倍），FY24E 的营业利润率也可能从14.3％增加到14.6％。
Targeting single digit % increase in store counts in FY24E (including both self-operated and franchised). Management is still highly prudent about its store expansion plan (because of the lesson learnt from its overexpansion in FY21) and only targets a single-digit increase in store numbers in FY24E (CMBI est. around 50), which included both direct- operated and franchised stores. The Company currently has 13 stores which have already signed the lease agreement and those are mostly located in the tier 2 or below cities. For the franchise model, the franchisee will provide the local knowledge and capital while many other duties (e.g. supply chain management, training of staffs, store management) will still be handled by Haidilao and consistent with the self-operated stores.
目标是 FY24E（包括自营和特许经营）的门店数量增加个位数百分比。管理层对其门店扩张计划仍然高度谨慎（因为从21财年的过度扩张中吸取了教训），其目标仅包括直营门店和特许经营门店在内的 FY24E（CMBI 预计约为50家）的门店数量增加个位数。该公司目前有13家门店已经签署了租赁协议，这些门店大多位于二线及以下城市。对于特许经营模式，加盟商将提供当地知识和资金，而许多其他职责（例如供应链管理、员工培训、门店管理）仍将由海底捞承担，并与自营门店保持一致。
Maintain BUY and trimmed TP to HK$ 21.52, based on 20x FY24E P/E (cut from 26x FY24E to factor in the slowdown in future net profit growth and sector de-rating). We raised our FY24E/ 25E net profit forecasts by 12%/ 15% to factor in: 1) impressive table turnover recovery, 2) better sourcing and procurement costs and 3) greater operating leverage. The stock is trading at 16x FY24E P/E, not too demanding vs its 5-year avg. of 42x. It also has a 5.6% FY24E yield, fairly attractive.
根据20倍的 FY24E 市盈率（考虑到未来净利润增长放缓和行业评级下调，从26倍的 FY24E 下调），维持买入并将目标价下调至21.52港元。我们将24E/25E财年的净利润预期提高了12％/15％，这是因为：1）令人印象深刻的餐桌营业额恢复，2）更好的采购和采购成本以及3）更高的运营杠杆率。该股的交易价格为 FY24E 市盈率的16倍，与其5年平均市盈率为42倍相比，要求不高。它的 FY24E 收益率也为5.6％，相当有吸引力。
译文内容由第三方软件翻译。