When researching a stock for investment, what can tell us that the company is in decline? A business that's potentially in decline often shows two trends, a return on capital employed (ROCE) that's declining, and a base of capital employed that's also declining. This indicates the company is producing less profit from its investments and its total assets are decreasing. So after we looked into CoreCivic (NYSE:CXW), the trends above didn't look too great.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. To calculate this metric for CoreCivic, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.061 = US$171m ÷ (US$3.1b - US$297m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).

So, CoreCivic has an ROCE of 6.1%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Commercial Services industry average of 10%.

In the above chart we have measured CoreCivic's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free analyst report for CoreCivic .

What Does the ROCE Trend For CoreCivic Tell Us?

We are a bit worried about the trend of returns on capital at CoreCivic. Unfortunately the returns on capital have diminished from the 7.8% that they were earning five years ago. And on the capital employed front, the business is utilizing roughly the same amount of capital as it was back then. Since returns are falling and the business has the same amount of assets employed, this can suggest it's a mature business that hasn't had much growth in the last five years. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on CoreCivic becoming one if things continue as they have.

The Key Takeaway

All in all, the lower returns from the same amount of capital employed aren't exactly signs of a compounding machine. Long term shareholders who've owned the stock over the last five years have experienced a 15% depreciation in their investment, so it appears the market might not like these trends either. Unless there is a shift to a more positive trajectory in these metrics, we would look elsewhere.

If you want to know some of the risks facing CoreCivic we've found 3 warning signs (1 can't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

While CoreCivic isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.