REMEGEN CO LTD(9995.HK):SOFT COMMERCIALISATION IN 2023;GUIDANCE OF AT LEAST 50% YOY GROWTH IN DRUG SALES IN 2024
REMEGEN CO LTD(9995.HK):SOFT COMMERCIALISATION IN 2023;GUIDANCE OF AT LEAST 50% YOY GROWTH IN DRUG SALES IN 2024
RemeGen Co Ltd
RemeGen 有限公司
Soft commercialisation in 2023; guidance of at least 50% YoY growth in drug sales in 2024
2023年實現軟商業化；預計2024年藥品銷售同比增長至少50％
RemeGen announced 2023 results with revenue up 40.2% to RMB1.08bn and net loss widened from RMB998.8m in 2022 to RMB1.5bn in 2023, in line with the preliminary results. The management expects at least 50% YoY growth in drug sales in 2024, with higher revenue contribution from RC18 than RC48. We believe RemeGen's current valuation has already reflected its soft commercialisation in 2023 and market concern over its tight cash position. Eyes on overseas pipeline progress of RC18. Maintain BUY and cut TP to HK$46.
榮昌生物公佈了2023年業績，收入增長40.2％至10.8億元人民幣，淨虧損從2022年的9.988億元擴大到2023年的15億元人民幣，與初步業績一致。管理層預計，2024年藥品銷售同比增長至少50％，RC18的收入貢獻將高於RC48。我們認爲，RemeGen目前的估值已經反映了其2023年的疲軟商業化以及市場對其現金狀況緊張的擔憂。關注RC18的海外管道進展。維持買入並將目標價下調至46港元。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Soft commercialisation amid industry headwind: RemeGen announced 2023 results with revenue up 40.2% to RMB1.08bn and net loss widened from RMB998.8m in 2022 to RMB1.5bn in 2023, in line with the preliminary results. The widened loss was mainly due to surging R&D expense and selling expenses, partially offset by improved gross profit margin (76.5% in 2023 vs. 64.8% in 2022). R&D expenses increased by 33% YoY to RMB1.3bn, with R&D expense ratio decreasing by 7ppts to 121%. Meanwhile, selling expenses increased by 76% YoY to RMB775m, with selling expenses ratio increasing by 15ppts to 72%. Revenue from telitacicept (RC18) and disitamab vedotin (RC48) was c.RMB520m and c.RMB530m, respectively. In terms of commercialisation, RC18/RC48 has 700+/500+ salesperson, and has been admitted to 800/650 hospitals (+300/+200 hospital in 2023).
行業不利因素下的軟商業化：榮昌生物公佈了2023年業績，收入增長40.2％至10.8億元人民幣，淨虧損從2022年的9.988億元擴大至2023年的15億元人民幣，與初步業績一致。虧損擴大主要是由於研發費用和銷售費用激增，但毛利率的提高在一定程度上被毛利率的提高所抵消（2023年爲76.5％，2022年爲64.8％）。研發費用同比增長33％至13億元人民幣，研發費用比率下降7個百分點至121％。同時，銷售費用同比增長76％至人民幣7.75億元，銷售費用比率增長15個百分點至72％。telitacept（RC18）和disitamab vedotin（RC48）的收入分別爲5.2億元人民幣和5.3億元人民幣。在商業化方面，RC18/RC48擁有700多名/500多名銷售人員，並已被800/650家醫院（2023年爲+300/+200家醫院）住院。
2024 outlook: the management expects at least 50% YoY growth in drug sales in 2024, with higher revenue contribution from RC18 than RC48. The management shared that despite lingering impact of industry rectification activities, not only the impact is mitigating, but also both RC48 and RC18 see faster hospital entry in 1Q24. In terms of sales and marketing, RemeGen expects the number of salesperson remain at current level, with more devoted to marketing, leading to decrease in selling expenses ratio. In terms of cash position, as of December 31, 2023, RemeGen has cash of c.RMB730m, and the management believes that it has sufficient capital source to meet daily operational needs, including secured loan credit of c.RMB4bn, revenue from BD projects, and refinancing, etc.
2024年展望：管理層預計，2024年藥品銷售同比增長至少50％，RC18的收入貢獻將高於RC48。管理層表示，儘管行業整改活動影響揮之不去，但不僅影響正在減輕，而且RC48和RC18在24年第一季度都將加快入院速度。在銷售和營銷方面，RemeGen預計銷售人員人數將保持在目前的水平，將更多地投入營銷，從而降低銷售費用比率。在現金狀況方面，截至2023年12月31日，榮昌生物擁有約7.3億元人民幣的現金，管理層認爲其有足夠的資本來源來滿足日常運營需求，包括40億元人民幣的擔保貸款信貸、來自BD項目的收入和再融資等。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
(i) Slower-than-expected sales ramp-up of RC18 and RC48; (ii) delay or failure of major clinical trials; and (iii) change of key management.
（i）RC18和RC48的銷售增長低於預期；（ii）重大臨床試驗的延遲或失敗；（iii）密鑰管理的變動。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。