HUITONGDA NETWORK(9878.HK):FOCUSING ON EARNINGS GROWTH
HUITONGDA NETWORK(9878.HK):FOCUSING ON EARNINGS GROWTH
Focusing more on earnings growth with strategic transition. LookingHTD delivered FY23 results with solid earnings growth (+42% YoY) despite soft top line (+0.4% YoY). For FY24E, mgmt. emphasized secular earnings growth and margin enhancement with aggressive cost control and operating leverage. As such, we modelled stable YoY revenue growth in FY24E, but earnings would surge 28% YoY (with GPM up to 3.5%, +0.2ppts YoY). We are positive on its enhanced profitability ahead, backed by: 1) a higher share of direct sales from member stores; 2) enhancing upstream supply chains; and 3) expanding high-GPM tier-2 categories. We slightly trim HTD's FY24-25E earnings forecast by 12%-14%, to factor in macro uncertainty and strategic adjustments. Our DCF-based TP is revised to HK$50.
儘管收入疲軟（同比增長0.4％），但HTD還是實現了23財年的業績，收益穩步增長（同比增長42％）。對於 FY24E，mgmt. 強調通過積極的成本控制和運營槓桿實現長期收益增長和利潤率的提高。因此，我們在 FY24E 中模擬了穩定的同比收入增長，但收益將同比增長28％（GPM高達3.5％，同比增長0.2個百分點）。我們對其未來盈利能力的提高持樂觀態度，這得益於：1) 會員門店的直銷份額增加；2) 增強上游供應鏈；3) 擴大高GPM二級類別。考慮到宏觀不確定性和戰略調整，我們將HTD的 FY24-25E 收益預測略微下調了12％-14％。我們基於差價合約的目標價調整爲50港元。
FY23 results show an improving margin. FY23 revenue rose 0.4% YoY, 8%
23 財年的業績顯示利潤率有所提高。23財年收入同比增長0.4％，8％
below consensus, while net profit reached RMB448mn (+42% YoY), 11% below consensus. Commerce business was stable YoY, in which consumer electronics/household appliances revenue was resilient at +19%/+0.7% YoY while agricultural product/liquor and beverage fell 22%/32% YoY. Services business revenue declined 17.6% YoY in FY23. GPM climbed up to 3.3% in FY23 from 3.1% in FY22, as HTD prioritizes high-GPM business and cost discipline. Its solid earnings growth and improving margin look acceptable, in our view.
低於預期，而淨利潤達到人民幣4.48億元（同比增長42％），比預期低11％。商業業務同比穩定，其中消費電子/家用電器收入同比增長19％/+0.7％，而農產品/酒類和飲料同比下降22％/32％。23財年服務業務收入同比下降17.6％。由於HTD優先考慮高GPM的業務和成本紀律，GPM從22財年的3.1％攀升至23財年的3.3％。我們認爲，其穩健的收益增長和利潤率的提高似乎是可以接受的。
Focusing more on earnings growth with strategic transition. Looking
通過戰略轉型，更多地關注收益增長。看
ahead to FY24E, mgmt. emphasized secular earnings growth and margin enhancement with aggressive cost control and operating leverage. As such, topline growth would not be top metrics in the short run. Considering macro uncertainty and the strategic adjustments, we modelled flat revenue YoY in FY24E, as HTD would focus more on high-GPM business development. On the margin side, we are positive on its enhanced profitability ahead, backed by: 1) a higher share of direct sales from member stores; 2) enhancing upstream supply chains; 3) expanding high-GPM tier-2 categories; and 4) continued discipline in expenditure. We forecast its GPM to improve to 3.5%/3.6% in FY24/25E, and NPM to 0.7%/0.8% in FY24/25E. Net profit would surge 28% YoY in FY24E, in our estimates.
在 FY24E 之前，mgmt. 強調通過積極的成本控制和運營槓桿實現長期收益增長和利潤率的提高。因此，收入增長在短期內不會是主要指標。考慮到宏觀的不確定性和戰略調整，我們在 FY24E 中模擬了同比收入持平，因爲 HTD 將更多地關注高GPM的業務發展。在利潤方面，我們對其未來盈利能力的提高持樂觀態度，這得益於：1）會員門店直銷份額的增加；2）增強上游供應鏈；3）擴大高GPM二級類別；4）持續的支出紀律。我們預計其GPM將在24/25E財年提高到3.5％/3.6％，而NPM將在24/25E財年提高到0.7％/0.8％。根據我們的估計，FY24E 的淨利潤將同比增長28％。
Maintain BUY. We slightly trim HTD's FY24-25E earnings forecast by 12%- 14%, to factor in macro uncertainty and strategic adjustments. We remain positive on its secular earnings growth. Our DCF-based TP is adjusted to HK$50.
維持買入。考慮到宏觀不確定性和戰略調整，我們將HTD的 FY24-25E 收益預測略微下調了12％至14％。我們對其長期收益增長仍然持樂觀態度。我們基於差價合約的目標價調整爲50港元。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
