PICC P&C(2328.HK):NON-AUTO COR BETTER THAN EXPECTED; SUSTAIN 40%+ PAYOUT IN NEXT TWO YEARS
PICC P&C(2328.HK):NON-AUTO COR BETTER THAN EXPECTED; SUSTAIN 40%+ PAYOUT IN NEXT TWO YEARS
PICC P&C reported solid underwriting combined ratio (CoR) at 97.8%, 0.3pct lower than our estimate (98.1%), primarily driven by better-than-expected non- auto CoR at 99.1%, 0.7pct lower than our forecast (99.8%, link). Within the non- auto segment, both individual and corporate businesses implied optimized CoR by -4.3pct and -3.4pct, respectively. We regard this a result of proactive mgt. of the P&C forerunner to refocus on businesses of high underwriting profits to compensate for the RMB 13.3bn net loss from natural catastrophes in 3Q23. The auto CoR was 96.9%, same to our forecast, which met the guidance of lower than 97%. Looking ahead, with a benign competitive landscape and economic recovery, we expect a lift on auto comprehensive loss ratio and a contracted comprehensive expense ratio at 70.6%/26.1% in FY24E, +0.2pct/-0.4%pct than that of FY23 (Fig. 2). Maintain BUY, with new TP (TTM) at HK$11.9 implying 1.0x FY24E P/B.
中國人民財產保險公司報告稱，穩健的承保綜合比率（CoR）爲97.8％，比我們的預期（98.1％）低0.3個百分點，這主要是由於非汽車CoR好於預期，爲99.1％，比我們的預測低0.7個百分點（99.8％，鏈接）。在非汽車細分市場中，個人和企業業務均暗示CoR分別優化了-4.3個百分點和-3.4個百分點。我們認爲這是財產與保險先行者積極管理的結果，他們將重點重新放在承保利潤高的業務上，以彌補23年第三季度自然災害造成的133億元人民幣淨虧損。汽車CoR爲96.9％，與我們的預測相同，後者達到了低於97％的預期。展望未來，隨着競爭格局良好，經濟復甦，我們預計，FY24E 汽車綜合虧損率和合同綜合支出比率將上升至70.6％/26.1％，比23財年增長0.2個百分點/-0.4％（圖2）。維持買入，新目標價（TTM）爲11.9港元，這意味着市盈率爲1.0倍 FY24E。
Auto in-line; non-auto outperformed by individual A&H. Auto premiums grew by 5.3% YoY to RMB285.6bn raising the insurance revenue by 5.3% YoY to RMB282.1bn, representing a conversion rate at 98.8%. Despite severe natural catastrophes in 3Q23, the insurer still met the year-beg. guidance on auto CoR (97%), to land at 96.9%, +2.4pct YoY given the comprehensive loss +2.1pct YoY to 70.4% and comprehensive expense +0.3pct YoY to 26.5%. This matched with our Feb preview (link), as we expected the auto expense ratio to drop in 2H (-1.0pct), esp. in 4Q23 under tightened regulations. Given the long-run auto premium growth driven by new electric vehicles (NEVs), we expect the NEV profitability turnaround, namely NEV CoR <100%, will unleash a new round of momentum, whereas now NEV commercial CoR is 7pct higher than that of fuel vehicles. We adjust our long-run auto premium growth to 5%. On non-auto front, individual A&H achieved RMB1.0bn underwriting profits in first year given the CoR -2.8pct to 97.7%. The line composed of 18% of total premiums and 25% of non-auto insurance revenue to RMB43.7bn, +23.8% YoY by end 2023 ranking the highest growth among all lines. We expect A&H CoR further contract to <97%, given improved efficiency on expense savings.
汽車在線；個人 A&H 跑贏非汽車。汽車保費同比增長5.3％，至人民幣2856億元，使保險收入同比增長5.3％，達到2821億元人民幣，轉化率爲98.8％。儘管在23年第三季度發生了嚴重的自然災害，但該保險公司仍達到了全年汽車業績預期（97％），爲96.9％，同比增長2.4％，綜合虧損同比增長2.1個百分點至70.4％，綜合支出同比增長0.3個百分點至26.5％。這與我們在2月份的預覽（鏈接）相吻合，因爲我們預計在監管收緊的情況下，汽車支出比率將在下半年下降（-1.0個百分點），尤其是在23年第四季度。鑑於新電動汽車（NEV）推動的長期汽車保費增長，我們預計新能源汽車盈利能力的轉變，即新能源汽車CoR
Sustain 40%+ promising payout in next two years. The insurer raised DPS by 2.3% YoY to RMB 0.489 per share by end-2023, implying a resilient payout to 44.2%, for the fifth consecutive year of >40%. The mgt. guided to maintain a robust payout of >40% in next two years. As a P&C forerunner, the insurer enjoys natural advantages on A/L mgt. given shorter durations on liability (~1year) vs longer-dated assets (~5years), and resulted in higher-than-peers total investment yield at 3.5% in 2023. Looking ahead, we expect the FY24E dividend yield to reach 5.7%, underpinned by a 12.3% FY24E ROE.
在未來兩年內維持40％以上的預期支出。到2023年底，該保險公司將存保收益同比提高2.3％，至每股0.489元人民幣，這意味着派息彈性至44.2％，這是連續第五年超過40％。管理當局指導在未來兩年內維持超過40％的強勁派息率。作爲財產與責任的先行者，由於負債期限（約1年）與長期資產（約5年）相比較短，該保險公司在資產負債管理方面享有自然優勢，並導致2023年總投資收益率高於同行，爲3.5％。展望未來，在12.3％的 FY24E 投資回報率的支撐下，我們預計 FY24E 的股息收益率將達到5.7％。
Maintain BUY. The stock is now trading at 0.84x FY24 P/B. We continue to value the stock as a defensive play against macro headwinds amid prolonged low interest rates, and reiterate it as our sector top-pick. We modestly guide down the long-term ROE from 13.0% to 12.8% concerning investment volatilities. The new TP from P/B-ROE is HK$11.9, implying 1.0x FY24E P/B.
維持買入。該股目前的交易價格爲24財年市盈率的0.84倍。在長期低利率下，我們繼續將該股估值作爲抵禦宏觀不利因素的防禦手段，並重申其爲我們的行業首選。在投資波動性方面，我們適度地將長期投資回報率從13.0％下調至12.8％。P/B-ROE的新目標爲11.9港元，這意味着1.0倍的 FY24E 市盈率。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。