ALUMINUM CORPORATION OF CHINA(601600):STRENGTHENS COST CONTROL AND EFFICIENCY ENHANCEMENT; EARNINGS RISING STEADILY
ALUMINUM CORPORATION OF CHINA(601600):STRENGTHENS COST CONTROL AND EFFICIENCY ENHANCEMENT; EARNINGS RISING STEADILY
2023 results in line with our expectations
2023 年的業績符合我們的預期
Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) announced its 2023 results: Revenue dropped 22.65% YoY to Rmb225.07bn, attributable net profit rose 60.23% YoY to Rmb6.72bn, and recurring net profit grew 111.27% YoY to Rmb6.61bn. In 4Q23, revenue fell 42.14% YoY (32.53% QoQ) to Rmb36.67bn, and attributable net profit stood at Rmb1.36bn, with YoY growth turning positive and QoQ growth declining 29.51%. The firm's results are in line with our expectations.
中國鋁業股份有限公司（Chalco）公佈了其2023年業績：收入同比下降22.65％至2,250.7億元人民幣，應占淨利潤同比增長60.23％至人民幣67.2億元，經常性淨利潤同比增長111.27％至人民幣66.1億元。在23年第四季度，收入同比下降42.14％（環比下降32.53％），至人民幣366.7億元，應占淨利潤爲13.6億元人民幣，同比增長轉爲正數，環比增長下降29.51％。該公司的業績符合我們的預期。
Profit per tonne of aluminum widened; profit of primary aluminum increased. In 2023, the firm's electrolytic aluminum output fell 1.31% YoY to 6.79mnt. Aluminum prices dropped 6.42% YoY, and alumina, coal, and anode prices fell 0.88%, 23.62%, and 24.23% YoY. Pre-tax profit of primary aluminum rose 15.61% YoY to Rmb11.24bn thanks to a sharper decline in costs (sharper than the decline in aluminum prices) and higher profit per tonne of aluminum.
每噸鋁的利潤擴大；原鋁的利潤增加。2023年，該公司的電解鋁產量同比下降1.31％，至679萬噸。鋁價格同比下降6.42％，氧化鋁、煤炭和陽極價格同比下降0.88％、23.62％和24.23％。原鋁的稅前利潤同比增長15.61％，至112.4億元人民幣，這要歸因於成本的急劇下降（比鋁價格的下跌幅度更大）和每噸鋁的利潤增加。
Alumina profit increased thanks to lower impairment losses. Chalco's alumina output fell 5.50% YoY to 16.67mnt in 2023. Pre-tax profit of alumina rose Rmb773mn YoY to Rmb985mn, thanks to lower asset impairment losses.
由於減值損失減少，氧化鋁利潤增加。2023年，中鋁的氧化鋁產量同比下降5.50％，至16.67億英鎊。由於資產減值損失減少，氧化鋁的稅前利潤同比增長7.73億元人民幣至9.85億元人民幣。
Asset structure improved; dividend payout ratio increased. The firm's liability-to-asset ratio dropped 2.31ppt YoY to 53.30% in 2023. Chalco proposed a cash dividend of Rmb0.08/sh (incl. tax), and raised its dividend payout ratio 5.7ppt YoY to 20.44%. In addition, the firm's annual asset impairment dropped Rmb4.13bn YoY to Rmb760mn.
資產結構改善；股息支付率提高。2023年，該公司的負債與資產比率同比下降2.31個百分點至53.30％。中鋁提議派發每股0.08元人民幣（含稅）的現金分紅，並將其股息支付率同比上調5.7個百分點至20.44％。此外，該公司的年度資產減值同比下降41.3億元人民幣至7.6億元人民幣。
Trends to watch
值得關注的趨勢
Chalco is ensuring resource supply in China and accelerating business upgrading. The upstream resource segment continues to increase supply, and the firm added 21mnt of bauxite resources in 2023. Amid the accelerating industrial upgrading and adjustment, Chalco also plans to speed up the construction of its Phase II 2mnt alumina project in Guangxi, 420,000t light alloy material project in Inner Mongolia, 500,000t electrolytic aluminum project in Qinghai, and 1,200MW source-grid-load storage project in Baotou (Inner Mongolia) in 2024.
中鋁正在確保中國的資源供應並加速業務升級。上游資源板塊繼續增加供應，該公司在2023年增加了2100萬英鎊的鋁土礦資源。在產業升級和調整加速的背景下，中鋁還計劃於2024年加快廣西二期2萬噸氧化鋁項目、內蒙古42萬噸輕合金材料項目、青海50萬噸電解鋁項目以及包頭（內蒙古）1200兆瓦源網負載儲能項目的建設。
Expanding overseas to enhance sustainable development. The firm now has about 1.8bn tonnes of bauxite resources overseas, and it plans to acquire more bauxite resources in Africa and Southeast Asia to continue improving its resource supply capability.
向海外擴張以促進可持續發展。該公司現在在海外擁有約18億噸鋁土礦資源，並計劃在非洲和東南亞收購更多的鋁土礦資源，以繼續提高其資源供應能力。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
We cut our revenue forecast due to decreases in trading, but raise our 2024 and 2025 earnings forecasts 8.3% and 8.3% to Rmb7.89bn and Rmb7.90bn due to rising electrolytic aluminum output. A-shares are trading at 16.1x and 16.1x 2024e and 2025e P/E. H-shares are trading at 9.6x and 9.2x 2024e and 2025e P/E. We maintain NEUTRAL for A-shares and H-shares. Given the robust demand in the industry, we raise our TP for A-shares 15% to Rmb8.3 (18x and 18x 2024e and 2025e P/E) offering 12% upside and raise our TP for H-shares 14% to HK$5.6 (11x and 11x 2024e and 2025e P/E) offering 13% upside.
由於交易量減少，我們下調了收入預期，但由於電解鋁產量增加，我們將2024年和2025年的收益預測上調了8.3％和8.3％至78.9億元人民幣和79.0億元人民幣。A股的市盈率爲2024年的16.1倍和16.1倍，2025年的市盈率爲9.6倍和9.2倍。H股的市盈率爲2024e和2025年的9.6倍和9.2倍。我們對A股和H股保持中立。鑑於該行業的強勁需求，我們將A股的目標價提高了15％，至人民幣8.3元（2024年市盈率和2025年市盈率的18倍和18倍），上漲12％，將H股的目標價提高14％至5.6港元（2024年和2025年市盈率的11倍和11倍），上漲13％。
Risks
風險
Global economic recovery and/or pro-growth policies of China disappoint; sharp price fluctuations.
全球經濟復甦和/或中國的促增長政策令人失望；價格劇烈波動。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。