JIANGSU EXPRESSWAY(600377):2023 RESULTS LARGELY IN LINE WITH OUR EXPECTATIONS; DPS INCREASES
JIANGSU EXPRESSWAY(600377):2023 RESULTS LARGELY IN LINE WITH OUR EXPECTATIONS; DPS INCREASES
Toll fee income recovers; new road assets boost revenue growth.2023 results largely in line with our expectations
2023 年的業績基本符合我們的預期
Jiangsu Expressway announced its 2023 results: Revenue rose 14.6% YoY to Rmb15.19bn; and net profit attributable to shareholders grew 18.5% YoY to Rmb4.41bn, largely in line with our expectations. In 4Q23, revenue fell 5.0% YoY to Rmb3.58bn; and attributable net profit dropped by 38.8% YoY to Rmb377mn, due to a high base in 4Q22. Yanjiang Company, an associate enterprise, recognized investment income of Rmb0.42bn in 4Q22 due to the issuance of real estate investment trusts (REITs).
江蘇高速公路公佈了其2023年業績：收入同比增長14.6％，至151.9億元人民幣；股東應占淨利潤同比增長18.5％，至44.1億元人民幣，基本符合我們的預期。在23年第四季度，收入同比下降5.0％，至35.8億元人民幣；歸屬淨利潤同比下降38.8％，至人民幣3.77億元，這要歸因於42年第四季度的較高基數。由於房地產投資信託（REIT）的發行，關聯企業延江公司在22年第四季度確認了42.2億元人民幣的投資收益。
Trends to watch
值得關注的趨勢
Toll fee income recovers; new road assets boost revenue growth.
通行費收入恢復；新的道路資產促進收入增長。
Toll road and bridge business: In 2023, the toll fee income of the company increased by 29.9% YoY to Rmb9.51bn. Toll fee income of its core asset - the Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway - rose 22.7% YoY (up 2.3% from 2021). Toll fee income of its new road and bridge assets increased markedly. In 2023, toll fee income of the Changyi expressway, which was launched at end-2020, climbed 43.8% YoY; and toll fee income of the Wufengshan bridge, which was launched in 2021, jumped 146% YoY. Net profit of the Wufengshan bridge reached Rmb310mn in 2023. The company holds a 64.5% stake in the bridge asset.
收費公路和橋樑業務：2023年，該公司的通行費收入同比增長29.9％，達到95.1億元人民幣。其核心資產——滬寧高速公路——的通行費收入同比增長22.7％（較2021年增長2.3％）。其新公路和橋樑資產的通行費收入顯著增加。2023年，於2020年底開通的昌義高速公路的通行費收入同比增長43.8％；2021年開通的五峯山大橋的通行費收入同比增長146％。2023年，五峯山大橋的淨利潤達到3.1億元人民幣。該公司持有橋樑資產64.5％的股份。
Auxiliary services: In 2023, revenue from auxiliary services increased by 64.1% YoY to Rmb1.84bn. Specifically, revenue from rental of service areas rose 97% YoY (down 53% from 2021). YoY growth in rental income slowed due to the termination of some service area agreements and rental reduction. Income from selling oil products increased by 63% YoY. GM of the auxiliary service business rose 12.2ppt YoY, thanks to income from selling oil products.
輔助服務：2023年，輔助服務收入同比增長64.1％，達到18.4億元人民幣。具體而言，服務區租賃收入同比增長97％（較2021年下降53％）。由於一些服務區協議的終止和租金的降低，租金收入的同比增長放緩。石油產品銷售收入同比增長63％。輔助服務業務的通用汽車同比增長12.2個百分點，這要歸功於石油產品的銷售收入。
New energy business: Revenue from the new energy business fell 1.5% YoY to Rmb642mn in 2023, due to lower on-grid electricity generation of offshore wind power plants.
新能源業務：由於海上風力發電廠的併網發電量減少，新能源業務收入在2023年同比下降1.5％，至人民幣6.42億元。
In 2023, its earnings resumed growth and dividend increased to Rmb0.47/sh, implying a dividend payout ratio of 53.65%. We think the firm will likely maintain sound absolute returns for investors, as it attaches importance to investor returns and it follows a stable dividend payment policy.
2023年，其收益恢復增長，股息增加至0.47元人民幣，這意味着股息支付率爲53.65％。我們認爲，該公司很可能會爲投資者保持良好的絕對回報，因爲它重視投資者的回報並遵循穩定的股息支付政策。
Road network in southern Jiangsu will likely boost earnings growth in the long term. According to corporate filings, the company plans to invest Rmb3.25bn to the Wuxi-Suzhou section of the Wuxi-Taicang expressway. In addition, it plans to acquire a 65% stake in the Suzhou- Wuxi-Changzhou Southern Expressway Company from Jiangsu Communications Holding for Rmb5.2bn. The company continues to invest in high-quality road assets in southern Jiangsu. In our opinion, such moves could help mitigate the heavy congestion in the Wuxi-Suzhou section of the Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway, and reduce the delays caused by traffic diversions. In addition, we think such moves could also extend the firm's rights of collecting toll fees from road assets and boost investment returns.
從長遠來看，江蘇南部的道路網絡可能會促進收益增長。根據公司文件，該公司計劃向無錫-太倉高速公路的無錫-蘇州段投資32.5億元人民幣。此外，它計劃以52億元人民幣從江蘇交通控股收購蘇州-無錫-常州南部高速公路公司65％的股份。該公司繼續投資江蘇南部的高質量道路資產。我們認爲，此類舉措可能有助於緩解滬寧高速公路無錫至蘇州段的嚴重擁堵，並減少因交通改道造成的延誤。此外，我們認爲此類舉措還可能擴大該公司從道路資產中收取通行費的權利，並提高投資回報。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
We maintain our 2024 and 2025 earnings forecasts. A-shares are trading at 11.9x 2024e and 11.3x 2025e P/E. H-shares are trading at 7.2x 2024e and 6.5x 2025e P/E. For A-shares, considering the company's stable dividend payment, we maintain an OUTPERFORM rating and our target price of Rmb12 (12.1x 2024e and 11.5x 2025e P/E), offering 2.0% upside. For H-shares, we maintain an OUTPERFORM rating and our target price of HK$9.92 (8.9x 2024e and 8.1x 2025e P/E), offering 23.9% upside.
我們維持2024年和2025年的收益預測。A股的市盈率爲2024年的11.9倍，2025年的市盈率爲11.3倍。H股的市盈率爲2024年的7.2倍，2025年的市盈率爲6.5倍。考慮到公司的穩定股息支付，我們維持跑贏大盤的評級和12元人民幣（2024年的12.1倍和2025年市盈率11.5倍），上漲幅度爲2.0％。對於H股，我們維持跑贏大盤的評級，目標價爲9.92港元（2024年市盈率8.9倍，2025年市盈率8.1倍），上漲幅度爲23.9％。
Risks
風險
Growth of vehicle traffic and/or economic growth disappoints; capex exceeds our expectation.
車輛交通和/或經濟增長的增長令人失望；資本支出超出了我們的預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。