NANJING TANKER CORPORATION(601975):2023 RESULTS SLIGHTLY MISS EXPECTATIONS; UPBEAT ON FUTURE EARNINGS GROWTH
NANJING TANKER CORPORATION(601975):2023 RESULTS SLIGHTLY MISS EXPECTATIONS; UPBEAT ON FUTURE EARNINGS GROWTH
2023 results slightly miss our expectationsNanjing Tanker Corporation announced its 2023 results. Revenue fell 1.08% YoY to Rmb6,197mn, and net profit attributable to shareholders rose 8.55% to Rmb1,557mn, implying EPS of Rmb0.32. In 4Q23, revenue fell 17.4% YoY but rose 3.9% QoQ to Rmb1,549mn, and net profit fell 26.2% YoY and 2.0% QoQ. The company's 2023 results slightly missed our expectations, as freight rates were slightly lower than our expectations in 4Q23.
2023年的業績略低於我們的預期南京油輪公司公佈了其2023年業績。收入同比下降1.08％至人民幣61.97億元，股東應占淨利潤增長8.55％，至人民幣15.57億元，這意味着每股收益爲0.32元人民幣。在23年第四季度，收入同比下降17.4％，但環比增長3.9％，至人民幣15.49億元，淨利潤同比下降26.2％，環比下降2.0％。該公司2023年的業績略低於我們的預期，因爲運費在23年第四季度略低於我們的預期。
In 4Q23, average freight rate of TC7 route to which the firm has allocated lots of shipping capacity was US$21,300/day, down 14.3% QoQ and 52.5% YoY, and freight rates for refined oil products in the Pacific region fell 0.7% QoQ or 44.3% YoY in 4Q23.
在23年第四季度，該公司分配大量運力的TC7航線的平均運費爲每天21,300美元，環比下降14.3％，同比下降52.5％，太平洋地區成品油的運費在23年第四季度同比下降0.7％，同比下降44.3％。
Trends to watch Improving supply and demand conditions in refined oil transportation market lay foundation for an industry up-cycle.
值得關注的趨勢成品油運輸市場供需條件的改善爲行業升級週期奠定了基礎。
Clarksons data shows that as of March 2024, overall orderbook as a percentage of fleet capacity was 10.6% for MR tankers, and 10% for older tankers that had been in operation of more than 20 years; deliveries of new MR tankers will account for 1.5% and 3.3% of the total fleet capacity at the beginning of the year in 2024 and 2025, and growth in demand for refined oil will be 7.3% and 0.3% (in tonne-miles). In addition, we believe the dismantling of old ships could accelerate amid higher requirements for environmental protection and Europe and the US' move to ramp up sanctions on transportation of Russian oil products, which may further constrain the expansion of MR vessel shipping capacity. No MR vessel has been dismantled YTD in 2024 and four were dismantled in 2023.
克拉克森的數據顯示，截至2024年3月，MR油輪的總訂單量佔船隊運力的百分比爲10.6％，運營超過20年的舊油輪爲10％；新的MR油輪的交付量將在2024年和2025年年初佔船隊總運力的1.5％和3.3％，對成品油的需求將增長7.3％和0.3％（以噸英里計）。此外，我們認爲，在對環境保護的更高要求以及歐洲和美國加強對俄羅斯石油產品運輸的制裁的情況下，舊船的拆解可能會加快，這可能會進一步限制MR船舶裝運能力的擴大。到2024年，迄今爲止，沒有拆解過任何MR船，2023年拆除了四艘船。
Average freight rates of small vessels have risen YTD due to the impact of the Red Sea tensions; we are upbeat on the firm's earningsupside. Average freight rates of small- and medium-sized oil tankers have risen markedly due to the Red Sea tensions. As of March 29, average freight rate for MR vessels on all routes rose US$60,000/day or 21% YoY, and average freight rate of TC7 route increased US$11,500/day or 45% YoY. We are upbeat on the firm's profitability as average freight rates tend up. In addition, the firm has gradually expanded its operations of routes in Atlantic regions starting from 2024.
由於紅海緊張局勢的影響，小型船舶的平均運費年初至今有所上漲；我們對該公司的收益上漲持樂觀態度。由於紅海緊張局勢，中小型油輪的平均運費顯著上升。截至3月29日，所有航線的MR船舶的平均運費每天上漲6萬美元，同比增長21％，TC7航線的平均運費每天增長11,500美元，同比增長45％。隨着平均運費的上漲，我們對公司的盈利能力持樂觀態度。此外，該公司從2024年開始逐步擴大其在大西洋地區的航線業務。
We believe that with the expansion of routes operated by the firm and the increase in the capacity of MR POOL, the firm's cargo volume and price premiums could both increase, boding well for improvement in its profitability.
我們認爲，隨着該公司運營航線的擴張和MR POOL運力的增加，該公司的貨運量和價格溢價都可能增加，這預示着其盈利能力的改善。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
We keep our 2024 earnings forecast unchanged, and introduce a 2025 net profit forecast of Rmb2.28bn. The stock is trading at 7.5x 2024e and 7.5x 2025e P/E. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating, but raise our target price 15.4% to Rmb4.5/sh to growing rising average freight rates and rising valuations, corresponding to 9.6x 2024e and 9.5x 2025e P/E, and offering 26.8% upside.
我們維持2024年的收益預測不變，並推出了2025年淨利潤22.8億元人民幣的預測。該股的交易價格爲2024年的7.5倍和2025年的市盈率7.5倍。我們維持跑贏大盤的評級，但由於平均運費上漲和估值的上升，將目標股價上調了15.4％，至4.5元人民幣，相當於2024年的9.6倍和2025年的9.5倍，上漲幅度爲26.8％。
Risks
風險
Falling global demand for oil products; geopolitical situation; a large increase in new vessel orders.
全球石油產品需求下降；地緣政治局勢；新船訂單大幅增加。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。