Hundsun Technologies Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
Hundsun Technologies Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
There's been a notable change in appetite for Hundsun Technologies Inc. (SHSE:600570) shares in the week since its yearly report, with the stock down 12% to CN¥22.08. Hundsun Technologies reported CN¥7.3b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.75 beat expectations, being 5.7% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
自年度报告发布以来，本周对恒生科技公司（上海证券交易所代码：600570）股票的需求发生了显著变化，该股下跌了12％，至22.08元人民币。恒生科技公布的收入为73亿元人民币，与分析师的预测大致一致，尽管0.75元人民币的法定每股收益（EPS）超出预期，比分析师的预期高出5.7％。根据结果，分析师更新了他们的盈利模式，很高兴知道他们是否认为公司的前景发生了巨大变化，或者业务是否照旧。因此，我们收集了最新的财报后预测，以了解估计对明年的预测。
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Hundsun Technologies from 20 analysts is for revenues of CN¥8.05b in 2024. If met, it would imply a decent 11% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 21% to CN¥0.91. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥8.93b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.08 in 2024. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.
考虑到最新业绩，20位分析师对恒生科技的最新共识是，2024年的收入为80.5亿元人民币。如果得到满足，这意味着其收入在过去12个月中将大幅增长11％。预计每股收益将飙升21％，至0.91元人民币。在本财报发布之前，分析师一直预测2024年的收入为89.3亿元人民币，每股收益（EPS）为1.08元人民币。在最近的业绩公布后，分析师似乎不那么乐观，他们下调了收入预期，并实际削减了每股收益数字。
The analysts made no major changes to their price target of CN¥37.79, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Hundsun Technologies' valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Hundsun Technologies analyst has a price target of CN¥54.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥19.40. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
分析师对37.79元人民币的目标股价没有做出重大调整，这表明评级下调预计不会对恒生科技的估值产生长期影响。但是，这并不是我们可以从这些数据中得出的唯一结论，因为一些投资者在评估分析师目标股价时也喜欢考虑估计值的差异。最乐观的恒生科技分析师将目标股价定为每股54.00元人民币，而最悲观的分析师则将目标股价定为19.40元人民币。注意到分析师目标股价的巨大差距了吗？对我们来说，这意味着基础业务存在相当广泛的可能情景。
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Hundsun Technologies' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Hundsun Technologies' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 11% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 17% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 22% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Hundsun Technologies.
这些估计很有趣，但是在查看预测与恒生科技过去的表现以及与同一行业的同行进行比较时，可以更粗略地描述一些细节。很明显，预计恒生科技的收入增长将大幅放缓，预计到2024年底的收入按年计算将增长11％。相比之下，过去五年的历史增长率为17％。相比之下，该行业的其他公司（根据分析师的预测），后者的总体收入预计每年将增长22％。因此，很明显，尽管收入增长预计将放缓，但整个行业的增长速度预计也将超过恒生科技。
The Bottom Line
底线
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Hundsun Technologies. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
最大的担忧是，分析师下调了每股收益预期，这表明恒生科技可能会面临业务不利因素。不幸的是，他们还下调了收入预期，我们的数据显示，与整个行业相比，表现不佳。即便如此，每股收益对业务的内在价值更为重要。共识目标股价没有实际变化，这表明该业务的内在价值与最新估计相比没有发生任何重大变化。
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Hundsun Technologies going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
考虑到这一点，我们仍然认为该业务的长期发展轨迹对于投资者来说更为重要。我们对恒生科技的预测将持续到2026年，你可以在我们的平台上免费查看。
Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Hundsun Technologies that we have uncovered.
在你采取下一步行动之前，你应该了解我们发现的恒生科技的1个警告信号。
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