SENSETIME(20.HK):ACCELERATING GENERATIVE AI MONETIZATION
SENSETIME(20.HK):ACCELERATING GENERATIVE AI MONETIZATION
SenseTime reported FY23 financial results on 26 Mar: total revenue declined by 11% YoY to RMB3.4bn in FY23, below consensus estimate of RMB4.3bn, primarily due to the decline in the Traditional AI business as the company shifted its strategic focus to Generative AI business; adjusted net loss widened by 14% YoY to RMB5.4bn in FY23, versus consensus estimate of RMB3.7bn, due to investment in AI infra and impairment loss of RMB1.8bn (mainly for trade receivables of the smart city business). For 2024, the company will further accelerate the monetization of generative AI services, which we expect to support its revenue rebound. Meanwhile, the company will enhance operating efficiency and improve cash flow conversion capability in 2024, via cutting non-core businesses. However, we expect the adjustment of Traditional AI business will drag overall revenue growth in the short term, and thus cut our FY24/25E revenue estimate by 24/24%. Our target price is lowered to HK$1.25 (previous: HK$2.30 based on 13x FY23 EV/sales) based on 7.0x FY24E EV/sales, which is a discount to the average EV/Sales of China's AI peers (7.8x), reflecting SenseTime's Traditional AI business headwind.
商湯科技於3月26日公佈了23財年財務業績：23財年總收入同比下降11％，至34億元人民幣，低於市場普遍預期的43億元人民幣，這主要是由於該公司將戰略重點轉移到生成式人工智能業務導致傳統人工智能業務下滑；23財年調整後的淨虧損同比增長14％，至54億元人民幣，而市場普遍估計爲37億元人民幣，這是由於投資於人工智能基礎設施和18億元人民幣的減值損失（主要用於智慧城市業務的貿易應收賬款）。到2024年，該公司將進一步加快生成式人工智能服務的貨幣化，我們預計這將支持其收入反彈。同時，該公司將通過削減非核心業務在2024年提高運營效率並提高現金流轉換能力。但是，我們預計，傳統人工智能業務的調整將在短期內拖累整體收入增長，從而將我們的24/25財年收入預期下調24/ 24％。根據7.0倍的 FY24E 電動汽車/銷售額，我們的目標價格下調至1.25港元（先前：按23財年電動汽車/銷售額的13倍計算爲2.30港元），低於中國人工智能同行的平均電動汽車/銷售額（7.8倍），反映了商湯傳統人工智能業務的不利因素。
Generative AI business recorded strong growth in FY23. Generative AI business revenue grew by 200% YoY to RMB1.18bn, and accounted for 35% of total revenue in FY23 (FY22: 10%), mainly driven by strong demand for model training and fine-tuning services. Over 70% of the Generative AI customers are new customers to SenseTime in FY23, while the average revenue per customer of the remaining 30% also recorded c.50% YoY growth. The consumer-end usage of SenseNova foundation model also saw a c.120-fold increase in FY23. On the other hand, the Traditional AI business revenue was down by 41% YoY to RMB1.84bn in 2023, as the company focused its resources on Generative AI business and scaled back smart city business. Revenue contribution from smart city business declined from 29% in FY22 to less than 10% in FY23. We expect the revenue mix shift to improve the cash conversion and profitability of SenseTime in the long term.
生成式人工智能業務在23財年實現強勁增長。生成式人工智能業務收入同比增長200％，達到11.8億元人民幣，佔23財年總收入的35％（22財年：10％），這主要是由對模型訓練和微調服務的強勁需求推動的。在23財年，超過70％的生成式人工智能客戶是商湯的新客戶，而其餘30％的每位客戶的平均收入也實現了約50％的同比增長。在23財年，SenseNova基礎模型的消費端使用量也增長了約120倍。另一方面，傳統人工智能業務收入在2023年同比下降41％，至18.4億元人民幣，原因是該公司將其資源集中在生成式人工智能業務上，並縮減了智慧城市業務。智慧城市業務的收入貢獻從22財年的29％下降到23財年的不到10％。我們預計，從長遠來看，收入結構的轉變將改善商湯的現金轉化率和盈利能力。
Monetizing generative AI opportunities. Looking into 2024, SenseTime's strategic goals will focus on: 1) maintaining competitive edges in AI technology by further doubling the scale of its computing power (currently at 12,000 petaFLOPs with 45,000 GPUs); 2) accelerating the monetization of Generative AI business; 3) enhancing profitability and cash conversion capability via spinning off non-core businesses. We see SenseTime to benefit from the secular trend of generative AI development, given its robust AI infrastructure and large model capability.
利用生成式 AI 機會獲利。展望2024年，商湯的戰略目標將側重於：1）通過將其計算能力規模進一步擴大一倍來保持人工智能技術的競爭優勢（目前爲12,000 PetaFLOP，45,000 GPU）；2）加速生成式人工智能業務的貨幣化；3）通過分拆非核心業務提高盈利能力和現金轉換能力。鑑於SenseTime強大的AI基礎設施和大型模型能力，我們認爲SenseTime將從生成式人工智能開發的長期趨勢中受益。
Expect enhancing profitability and cash conversion in FY24E. SenseTime's GPM dropped by 23ppt YoY to 44.1% in 2023, primarily due to investment in AI infrastructure. We expect the GPM to stabilize over FY24-26 as the company accelerates monetization of Generative AI business. We also expect improving adjusted net loss margin from -157% in FY23 to -71/-42% in FY24/25E, as SenseTime continues to enhance its operating efficiency and scale back non-core business.
預計 FY24E 將提高盈利能力和現金轉化率。商湯科技的GPM在2023年同比下降了23個百分點至44.1％，這主要是由於對人工智能基礎設施的投資。我們預計，隨着該公司加速生成式人工智能業務的貨幣化，GPM 將在 FY24-26 上趨於穩定。我們還預計，隨着商湯科技繼續提高其運營效率和縮減非核心業務，調整後的淨虧損利潤率將從23財年的-157％提高到24/25E財年的-71/ -42％。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。