AAC TECH(2018.HK):SOLID OUTLOOK FOR PSS MERGER & OPTICS MARGIN RECOVERY; MAINTAIN HOLD ON FAIR VALUATION
AAC TECH(2018.HK):SOLID OUTLOOK FOR PSS MERGER & OPTICS MARGIN RECOVERY; MAINTAIN HOLD ON FAIR VALUATION
AAC reported FY23 revenue of RMB20.4bn (-1.0% YoY) and net income of RMB740mn (-9.9% YoY), above consensus estimates mainly due to exchange gains and other income. FY23 GPM came in at 16.9%, largely in line, and 2H23 GPM recovered to 19.2% (+1.4ppts YoY/+5.1ppts HoH), driven by demand recovery and product upgrades. For FY24E, mgmt. guided 10-15% YoY sales growth (+20-30% YoY including PSS), driven by: 1) an optics GPM turnaround in 2H24E on market recovery, spec upgrades and WLG ramp-up; 2) auto biz PSS integration to bring auto synergy; 3) acoustics/haptics/casing/hinges to benefit from model launches and market share gains, and 4) AI phone upgrades in acoustics and cooling parts. Overall, we lift our FY24/25E EPS by 29/50% to reflect the PSS deal and stronger margin and business outlook. While we are positive on AAC's business outlook, the stock now trades at 20.2x/16.2x FY24/25E P/E, which is fair in our view. Maintain Hold with a new SOTP-based TP of HK$22.44, implying 18.0x FY24E P/E
AAC报告称，23财年收入为204亿元人民币（同比下降1.0％），净收入为人民币7.4亿元（同比下降9.9％），高于市场普遍预期，这主要是由于汇兑收益和其他收入。受需求复苏和产品升级的推动，23财年GPM为16.9％，基本持平，下半年GPM恢复至19.2％（同比增长1.4个百分点/环比增长5.1个百分点）。对于 FY24E 而言，管理层预计销售额同比增长 10-15%（包括 PSS，同比增长 20-30%），这得益于：1) 2H24E 在市场复苏、规格升级和 WLG 提升方面的光学 GPM 转变；2) 汽车业务 PSS 整合带来汽车协同效应；3) 声学/触觉/外壳/铰链将受益于车型发布和市场份额的增加，以及 4) 声学和 AI 手机在声学方面的升级冷却部件。总体而言，我们将24/25财年的每股收益提高了29/ 50％，以反映PSS交易以及更强的利润率和业务前景。尽管我们对AAC的业务前景持乐观态度，但该股目前的交易价格为24/25财年的市盈率为20.2倍/16.2倍，在我们看来，这是公平的。维持持有，基于标准止损标准的新目标价为22.44港元，这意味着市盈率为18.0倍 FY24E
FY23 earnings beat on across-the-board margin recovery. By segment, acoustics/ED&PM/optics/MEMS revenue posted -15%/+13%/+13%/-18% YoY changes. In particular, optics segment reported narrowing loss in 2H23 due to improving ASP/margin and premium product ramp-up. Mgmt. stated that plastic lenses turned profitable in 1Q24 and guided a positive GPM in 2H24/FY24E. ED&PM delivered solid growth supported by further share gains for haptics/metal frames/foldable phone hinges. FY23 GPM came in at 16.9% with strong margin recovery in 2H23 across the segments, benefiting from demand recovery and product upgrades.
由于利润率全面回升，23财年的收益超过了预期。按细分市场划分，声学/ED&PM/光学/微机电系统收入同比变动-15％/+13％/+13％/-18％。特别是，光学板块报告称，由于ASP/利润率的提高和优质产品的增长，23年下半年的亏损有所收窄。管理总经理表示，塑料镜片在24年第一季度实现了盈利，并在24财年下半年实现了正增长的GPM。在触觉/金属框架/可折叠手机铰链的进一步份额增长的支持下，ED&PM实现了稳健增长。受益于需求复苏和产品升级，23财年GPM达到16.9％，各细分市场的利润率在23年下半年强劲回升。
FY24E outlook: optics margin improvement, ED&PM upgrade and PSS consolidation. For FY24E, mgmt. guided 10-15% YoY sales growth (+20- 30% YoY including PSS), driven by 1) optics margin to turn positive in 2H24/FY24E on better HCM GPM, ASP hikes and an improving scale; 2) accelerated growth in acoustics/haptics/casing/foldable phone hinges; 3) PSS consolidation to boost sales synergy in auto acoustics business. Overall, we estimate FY24E revenue/net profit to grow +30%/+82% YoY.
FY24E 展望：光学利润率提高、ED&PM 升级和 PSS 整合。对于 FY24E，管理层预计销售额同比增长10-15％（包括PSS，同比增长20-30％），这得益于1）由于HCM GPM的改善、ASP的提高和规模的扩大，光学利润率在24财年下半年转为正数；2）声学/触觉/外壳/可折叠手机铰链加速增长；3) PSS 整合以增强汽车声学业务的销售协同效应。总体而言，我们估计 FY24E 收入/净利润将同比增长30％/+82％。
Recent rally reflected most positives; maintain HOLD on fair valuation. For FY24E, while we are positive on AAC's earnings recovery, we believe the recent rally has reflected its positives and its current valuation at 20.2x/16.2x FY24/25E P/E is fair. Maintain HOLD with a new SOTP-based TP of HK$22.44, implying 18.0x FY24E P/E. Near-term catalysts include key customer's new model launch and customer share gains.
最近的涨势反映了大多数积极因素；维持公允估值不变。对于 FY24E，尽管我们对AAC的收益复苏持乐观态度，但我们认为最近的涨势反映了其积极方面，其目前估值为24/25财年市盈率为20.2x/16.2倍是公平的。维持持有，基于SOTP的新目标价为22.44港元，这意味着18.0倍的 FY24E 市盈率。短期催化剂包括主要客户新车型的推出和客户份额的增长。
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