Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Baxter International Inc. (NYSE:BAX) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
How Much Debt Does Baxter International Carry?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Baxter International had US$13.7b of debt in December 2023, down from US$16.6b, one year before. However, it does have US$3.19b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$10.5b.
How Healthy Is Baxter International's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Baxter International had liabilities of US$6.50b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$13.3b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$3.19b as well as receivables valued at US$2.74b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$13.9b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This is a mountain of leverage even relative to its gargantuan market capitalization of US$21.3b. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Baxter International has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.8 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 3.4 times. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. Even more troubling is the fact that Baxter International actually let its EBIT decrease by 2.5% over the last year. If that earnings trend continues the company will face an uphill battle to pay off its debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Baxter International can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Baxter International produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 66% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Our View
Baxter International's net debt to EBITDA and interest cover definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But we do take some comfort from its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow. It's also worth noting that Baxter International is in the Medical Equipment industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. We think that Baxter International's debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. Not all risk is bad, as it can boost share price returns if it pays off, but this debt risk is worth keeping in mind. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Baxter International (of which 1 is concerning!) you should know about.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.