Earnings Miss: Niu Technologies Missed EPS And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
Earnings Miss: Niu Technologies Missed EPS And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
Niu Technologies (NASDAQ:NIU) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.4% to US$1.74 in the week after its latest full-year results. It was a pretty bad result overall, with revenues coming in 21% lower than the analysts predicted. Unsurprisingly, the statutory profit the analysts had been forecasting evaporated, turning into a loss of CN¥3.47 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Niu Technologies after the latest results.
Niu Technologies(納斯達克股票代碼:NIU)的股東可能會感到有些失望,因爲其股價在公佈最新全年業績後的一週內下跌7.4%,至1.74美元。總體而言,這是一個相當糟糕的結果,收入比分析師的預期低21%。毫不奇怪,分析師預測的法定利潤蒸發了,變成每股虧損3.47元人民幣。對於投資者來說,這是一個重要時刻,因爲他們可以在報告中追蹤公司的業績,看看專家對明年的預測,看看對該業務的預期是否有任何變化。讀者會很高興得知我們已經彙總了最新的法定預測,以了解分析師在最新業績公佈後是否改變了對Niu Technologies的看法。
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Niu Technologies' three analysts is for revenues of CN¥3.39b in 2024. This reflects a sizeable 28% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Niu Technologies is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of CN¥3.44 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥4.21b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥3.35 in 2024. It looks like there's been a meaningful change to the consensus view following the recent earnings report, with the analysts making a real cut to to revenue forecasts and a small increase to to next year's earnings estimates.
考慮到最新業績,牛科技的三位分析師的共識預測是,2024年的收入爲33.9億元人民幣。這反映了與過去12個月相比,收入大幅增長了28%。Niu Technologies也有望實現盈利,法定每股收益爲3.44元人民幣。在本報告發布之前,分析師一直在模擬2024年的收入爲42.1億元人民幣,每股收益(EPS)爲3.35元人民幣。在最近的業績發佈之後,共識觀點似乎發生了有意義的變化,分析師實際下調了收入預期,小幅上調了明年的收益預期。
The analysts have cut their price target 14% to US$3.72per share, suggesting that the declining revenue was a more crucial indicator than the expected improvement in earnings. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Niu Technologies at US$6.08 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$2.20. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
分析師已將目標股價下調14%至每股3.72美元,這表明收入下降是一個比預期的收益改善更爲關鍵的指標。研究分析師的估計範圍,評估異常值與平均值的差異程度也可能很有啓發性。目前,最看漲的分析師對Niu Technologies的估值爲每股6.08美元,而最看跌的分析師估值爲2.20美元。由於估值範圍如此狹窄,分析師顯然對他們認爲的業務價值有相似的看法。
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Niu Technologies' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 28% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 13% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Niu Technologies is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
從現在的大局來看,我們可以理解這些預測的方法之一是看看它們如何與過去的業績和行業增長預期相比較。從最新估計中可以明顯看出,Niu Technologies的增長率預計將大幅加速,預計到2024年底的年化收入增長率爲28%,明顯快於過去五年中13%的歷史增長。相比之下,我們的數據表明,預計類似行業的其他公司(有分析師報道)的收入將以每年13%的速度增長。考慮到收入增長的預測,很明顯,預計Niu Technologies的增長速度將比其行業快得多。
The Bottom Line
底線
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Niu Technologies' earnings potential next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. With that said, earnings are more important to the long-term value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
對我們來說,最大的收穫是共識的每股收益上調,這表明人們對Niu Technologies明年盈利潛力的看法明顯改善。遺憾的是,他們還下調了收入預期,但最新的預測仍然表明該業務的增長速度將快於整個行業。話雖如此,收益對企業的長期價值更爲重要。此外,分析師還下調了目標股價,這表明最新消息加劇了人們對業務內在價值的悲觀情緒。
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Niu Technologies analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
根據這種思路,我們認爲該業務的長期前景比明年的收益重要得多。根據多位Niu Technologies分析師的估計,到2026年,你可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
You can also see our analysis of Niu Technologies' Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.
您還可以看到我們對Niu Technologies董事會和首席執行官薪酬和經驗的分析,以及公司內部人士是否一直在購買股票。
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。
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